美中戰略競爭下韓國的臺海政策之演變 (2017~2024)

Abstract

尹錫悅執政前，韓國政府在臺海峽政策上的基本路線是「尊重一個中國的立場」，並與臺灣保持非正式交流。韓中建交後，兩國經濟關係日益緊密，韓國也開始期待中國在朝鮮半島問題上發揮角色。特別是文在寅在短期內推動與北韓的和平統一，但其進展中斷。接著，韓中經濟關係放緩、北韓的持續軍事威脅在美中戰略競爭的背景下進一步加劇。中國在韓中經濟中的重要性下降的時，美國的重要性逐漸上升的情況使尹錫悅對中國的重視程度也比以前減少。此外，隨著北韓的持續威脅，使得尹錫悅在短期內較難推動和平統一，對中國在解決朝鮮半島問題上的期待也隨之減少。在這樣的背景下就任的尹錫悅重視安全與韓美同盟，並強化與美國的合作。接著，韓國發表韓國版「印太戰略」，尹錫悅決定在美中戰略競爭中站在美國一邊。因此，尹錫悅加強對中國的安全措施，不斷強調臺海穩定的重要性，韓國的對中政策也隨之發生變化。然而，韓國對中國政策上進行安全措施強度的調整，其變化程度是微妙的。隨著韓國對中國的政策發生變化，相對重視與臺灣的關係，交流範圍擴大到尹錫悅之前較少涉及的公開政治領域。但對這些政治交流的程度進行調整，政治交流的變化也是微妙的。尹錫悅上任後，韓國的臺海政策雖然發生變化，但變化程度是微妙的。

Prior to Yoon Suk-yeol’s administration, the ROK’s government maintained a fundamental stance on the Taiwan Strait policy that involved “Respecting the One-China” while sustaining informal exchanges with Taiwan. Following the establishment of diplomatic relations between the ROK and China, their economic ties grew increasingly close. Consequently, the ROK began to anticipate that China would play a significant role in addressing issues on the Korean Peninsula. In particular, Moon Jae-in aimed to promote peaceful unification with North Korea in the short term; however, progress was halted. Subsequently, the slowdown in economic relations between ROK and China, coupled with the persistent military threat from North Korea, further intensified amidst the strategic competition between the U.S. and China. As China’s significance in ROK-China economic relations declined and the importance of the U.S. gradually increased, Yoon Suk-yeol’s attention to China also diminished compared to previous administrations. Moreover, as North Korea’s persistent threats make it increasingly difficult for Yoon Suk-yeol to advocate for peaceful reunification in the short term, expectations for China to play a significant role on the Korean Peninsula have also diminished. In this context, Yoon Suk-yeol emphasized the importance of security and the ROK-U.S. alliance, thereby enhancing cooperation with the U.S. The announcement of the Korean version of the “Indo-Pacific Strategy” signaled the ROK’s decision to align with the U.S. in the U.S.-China strategic competition. Therefore, Yoon Suk-yeol reinforced security measures concerning China and consistently emphasized the importance of stability in the Taiwan Strait, leading to an evolution in ROK’s policy toward China. However, ROK’s adjustment to its China policy in response to the intensity of security measures has been subtle. As ROK’s policy toward China evolved, its relationship with Taiwan also became relatively more significant. The scope of exchanges has expanded to encompass political fields that were less engaged prior to Yoon Suk-yeol administration. However, despite the expansion of political exchanges, the evolution in these exchanges remains subtle. Following Yoon Suk-yeol’s administration, ROK’s Taiwan Strait policy has evolved; however, the degree of this evolution has been subtle.