論台灣在1999到2020之間的所得流動

Abstract

利用家庭動態資料庫的資料,我探討了台灣所得流動的狀況。我將研究中的受試者依照他們過去的薪資進行分類,並利用邏輯斯迴歸分析的方式檢視了台灣在 1999 到 2020 之間的所得流動與所得轉換。考慮短期的情況時,可以發現到對於失業的個體而言,向上流動的趨勢有所減少。同時,對於有工作的族群而言,失業的風險有越來越低的趨勢。在所有的個體中,控制了年齡的影響後,在 1964-1976年間出生的人相對於其他世代的人享有更好的流動條件。年齡主要對於所得較低的族群而言有負面的影響。同性別之間存在著流動條件上的差距,而這個差距對於薪資水準在第 25 個百分位數底下的人較大,而對於所的水準越高的族群來說,流動條件的差距也隨之減少。對於所得水準最高的族群而言,性別間的差距在長時間之下甚至是可以忽略的。職業的選擇也會影響到流動性。在政府機關工作的受試者,不論在短期或長期的情況底下,都會有較低的向下流動以及較高的向上流動。同時,長期而言,這些人甚至有機會成為薪資水準最高的一群人。相對的,自雇的族群雖然擁有在短期就躍升到薪資分布的頂端,然而這些人整體上暴露在與其他人相同的向下流動的風險當中。

Using data collected in the Panel Study of Family Dynamics, I examined the wage mobility in Taiwan. Individuals are grouped in different salary groups based on their past salaries. A logit model is applied on the individuals on different groups to examine wage transitions within different transition periods in the span of 1999-2020. In the short term, the upward mobility for the unemployed has decreased throughout time, while employed individuals have become more resilient to unemployment. Gender gaps exists and is most severe for woman with salaries below the 25th precentile, and the gap is less severe at the upper half of the wage distribution. Among all respondents of the study, individuals that are born from 1964-1976 have an advantage over other cohorts in mobility even controlling for age. Age displays a negative effect mostly for individuals with lower salary. The gap at the top of the wage distribution is even ignorable in the view of longer transition periods. Occupation characteristics affect mobility. Working for a government organization decreases downward mobility and improves upward mobility in all time spans, and it even provides opportunities to reach the top of the wage distribution in the long term. On the other hand, though self-employment provides opportunities to earn more than the 75th percentile even in the short term, it does not provide insurance against downward mobility for most salary groups.