稻米政策對臺灣中南部地區稻穀生產的影響

Abstract

本研究為探討我國農業政策實施後對中南部地區稻米生產之影響，研究中探討我國近年來稻米政策，蒐集並整理稻米產業生產概況，說明稻米產業之生產供應鏈，參考過去相關文獻並彙整，資料中整理各縣市種植面積、各縣市稻穀價格圖、稻穀價格的收益表；使用回歸分析模型分析農業政策、稻穀價格、稻穀種植面積、大豆、硬質玉米種植面積、中南部各縣市及區域對稻穀產量之影響。 研究結果顯示梗稻種植面積每增加1公頃中南部梗稻產量平均會增加5927公斤、中部為4885公斤、南部為7562公斤，各縣市中以彰化縣的產量最高。 2011年公糧收購價提高其政策效果對中南部地區、中部地區、南部地區等地區的稻農產量均有正向顯著的影響；2013年實施調整耕作制度活化農地計畫，鼓勵稻農轉(契)作戰略作物或轉作地方特色作物，亦即轉作非稻作的作物但同時也鼓勵耕作優良品種的契作，結果顯示對中南部地區、中部地區等地區的農產量有負向顯著影響；2018年實施公糧稻穀全面雙軌制(直接給付)，其政策效果對中南部地區、中部地區、南部地區等地區的稻農產量均有正向顯著的影響。 隨著國人飲食習慣的改變，國人對白米的需求量逐年降低，台灣未來的稻作產業是艱辛的，未來的政策可朝向機械化生產減少人力支出、降低耕作面積並積極探索稻米的創新應用提高單位面積的附加價 值與友善環境政策及觀光旅遊相互結合發展產業。

This study investigates the impact of Taiwan's agricultural policies on rice production in the central and southern regions. The research explores recent rice policies, compiles and organizes production data from the rice industry, and explains the production supply chain. Relevant literature was reviewed and consolidated, including data on planted areas by county, rice price charts, and revenue tables for rice prices. A regression analysis model was used to analyze the effects of agricultural policies, rice prices, rice planting areas, soybean and hard corn planting areas, and regional factors on rice yields in various counties of the central and southern regions. The results show that for every hectare increase in Japonica rice planting area, the average yield of Japonica rice in the central and southern regions increases by 5,927 kg, with 4,885 kg in the central region and 7,562 kg in the southern region. Among the counties, Changhua County had the highest yield. The policy of raising the purchase price of public rice in 2011 had a significant positive impact on rice yields in the central and southern regions. The 2013 adjustment of the farming system to revitalize farmland, which encouraged farmers to switch to strategic or locally unique crops (non-rice crops) or to contract-grow high-quality rice varieties, had a significant negative impact on agricultural yields in the central and southern regions. The implementation of the dual-track system (direct payment) for public rice in 2018 had a significant positive impact on rice yields in the central, southern, and overall central-southern regions. As Taiwanese dietary habits change, the demand for white rice has been decreasing yearly, making the future of Taiwan's rice industry challenging. Future policies may focus on mechanized production to reduce labor costs, decreasing planting areas, and actively exploring innovative applications of rice to increase the added value per unit area. Additionally, integrating environmentally friendly policies with tourism could be a potential direction for industrial development.