以多元流理論分析《境外資金匯回專法》制定過程

Abstract

自1990年台灣政府開放對中國大陸投資以來，台商在海外尤其是中國大陸積累了大量資金。隨著全球經濟環境的變化，特別是美中貿易摩擦加劇及國際反避稅趨勢興起，台商開始重新評估將資金匯回台灣的必要性。儘管立法委員曾於2017年和2018年提出相關法案，但由於社會各界對熱錢、房地產及股市投機以及稅收公平性等問題的擔憂，這些法案均未獲得通過。然而，在政策行動者的持續努力及行政部門的協調下，《境外資金匯回管理運用及課稅條例》（簡稱《專法》）最終於2019年8月15日正式施行，有效期為兩年，為台商資金回流提供了明確且優惠的政策指引。

本研究採用John W. Kingdon於1984年提出的多元流理論作為分析框架，深入探討《專法》的立法過程。通過次級資料整理分析及深度訪談相關人士，本研究得出以下結論：在問題流方面，全球反避稅措施的加強、美中貿易摩擦的影響、台灣經濟發展的內在需求、提升企業競爭力的迫切性以及台商「落葉歸根」的情感等多重因素，共同驅使台商產生將資金匯回台灣的意願。通過將資金回流議題重新定位為符合國家整體利益的重要事項，促使行政部門重新評估其合法性與必要性。在政治流方面，政策倡導者通過策略性結盟並持續遊說，成功地使政府高層的態度從初期的謹慎轉變為積極支持。在政策流方面，政策企業家和立法委員提出政策方案，促使行政部門透過相關部會間的緊密合作，制定出兼顧租稅公平、防制洗錢和經濟穩定發展的相應方案。最終，這三股流匯集在一起，推動政策窗的開啟，從而促成《專法》順利通過。

基於本案例研究，本文提出以下政策建議： 一、外在政治經濟環境的變化或重大事件，可能促使問題流的凸顯，進而激發政策企業家與政治人物的積極運作，並導致政策窗開啟。政府應密切注意其變化，建立靈活和快速反應的政策制定機制，以迅速採取行動因應之。 二、在政策規劃與制定階段，由於三流可能耦合，且政策窗開啟的時間長短不一，若政府想要進行政策改變，就需要建立敏捷的跨部會協調機制，納入相關部會，並務實面對各部會不同的立場與意見，透過密切的討論與協商，確保政策設計的一致性、連貫性、全面性、與可執行性。 三、在問題流出現時，政策的形象與定義框架至關重要。若政策企業家與政府真的想要改變政策，就需要重新設計並宣傳政策的定義框架，扭轉原本不利的觀感，轉變為正面的形象。 四、政策企業家的角色非常重要，他（們）必須不斷努力，利用國內外政經環境的改變或重大事件，來取得有利的戰略高點，以利說服相關政府單位與民意代表，進而與他們建立合作聯盟，從而實現政策的改變。

Since the Taiwanese government permitted domestic enterprises to invest in China in 1990, Taiwanese businesses have accumulated substantial capital in China and other regions. The escalation of the US-China trade war and the global trend towards anti-tax avoidance have complicated the international investment landscape, prompting Taiwanese businesses to reconsider the necessity of repatriating funds to Taiwan. Although legislators proposed relevant bills in 2017 and 2018, these were not passed due to societal concerns about hot money, real estate speculation, stock market manipulation, and tax equity. However, through the efforts of policy actors and coordination by government administrative departments, the "Management, Utilization, and Taxation of Repatriated Offshore Funds Act" (hereafter referred to as the "Act") was enacted on August 15, 2019, with a two-year effective period, providing clear and preferential policy guidance for the repatriation of Taiwanese business funds.

This study employs John W. Kingdon's Multiple Streams Framework (MSF), proposed in 1984, to examine the legislative process of the Act. Through secondary data analysis and interviews with relevant individuals, the research findings indicate that in the problem stream, factors such as strengthened global anti-tax avoidance measures, the impact of the US-China trade war, Taiwan's economic development needs, the enhancement of enterprise competitiveness, and emotional ties to the homeland drove Taiwanese businesses to consider repatriating funds to Taiwan. By framing fund repatriation as an issue aligned with national interests, the administrative branch was prompted to reassess its legitimacy. In the political stream, policy actors formed strategic alliances and engaged in persistent lobbying, transforming the attitude of high-level government officials from cautious to actively supportive. In the policy stream, policy entrepreneurs and legislators proposed policy options, prompting the administrative branch to formulate corresponding measures that balanced tax fairness, anti-money laundering, and stable economic development through close cooperation between relevant ministries. Ultimately, these three streams converged, opening a policy window that facilitated the passage of the Act.

This case study yields the following insights and policy recommendations: 1.Changes in the external political and economic environment or significant events may highlight the problem stream, stimulating active operations by policy entrepreneurs and political figures, and leading to the opening of policy windows. The government should closely monitor these changes and establish flexible and responsive policy-making mechanisms to take prompt action. 2.During the policy planning and formulation stages, as the three streams may couple and policy windows open for varying durations, the government should establish an agile inter-ministerial coordination mechanism if it wishes to implement policy changes. This mechanism should incorporate relevant ministries, pragmatically address different positions and opinions, and ensure policy design consistency, coherence, comprehensiveness, and feasibility through close discussion and negotiation. 3.When the problem stream emerges, the framing and definition of policy image are crucial. If policy entrepreneurs and the government genuinely wish to change policies, they need to redesign and promote the definition framework and image of the policy, transforming unfavorable perceptions into positive ones. 4.The role of policy entrepreneurs is vital. They must continually strive to leverage changes in domestic and international political and economic environments or significant events to gain advantageous strategic positions. This enables them to persuade relevant government units and elected representatives, establish collaborative alliances, and ultimately achieve policy changes.