韓國在中美之間的戰略選擇（2013至2022年）－薩德系統部署決策為例

Abstract

2016年7月8日韓國美國宣布合作部署薩德系統（Terminal High Altitude Area Defense，THAAD），根據韓國與美國官方的說法，THAAD系統部署目的源於韓半島核武危機，為了防禦來自朝鮮的核武與飛彈威脅以及保護駐韓美軍，僅是針對朝鮮的防禦性武器，不針對第三方國家。然而，2015年朴槿惠政府才剛以「三不政策」回應美韓合作部署THAAD議題。可以顯見於THAAAD議題，以2016年為分水嶺的朴槿惠政府政策大轉彎，韓國由對美中等距外交，轉為更加親美，可見韓國在美中之間搖擺。究竟哪些因素促使韓國在美中之間搖擺？尤其是，哪些因素影響韓國政府於「與美國合作部署THAAD系統」決策？ 為回答上述問題，本文從聯盟理論、威脅平衡論出發，佐以利益平衡論，以四種策略動機－安全利益、安全顧慮、經濟利益、經濟顧慮，剖析於THAAD議題，美國與中國兩強權可能為韓國帶來的利益與顧慮；以四種策略指標－綜合國力、地理鄰近、攻擊力量、侵略意圖，剖析中國與朝鮮可能影響韓國政府對THAAD議題決策的因素。時間軸方面，以THAAD議題熱門的朴槿惠時期為核心，由於朴槿惠政府於2016年於THAAD議題決策大轉彎，所以2016年為分水嶺切割為朴槿惠前、後期，並涵蓋文在寅時期，總共三個時期進行研究分析。於策略選擇部分，試圖分析上述四種策略動機、指標對策略選擇的影響，並試圖於策略光譜為三個時期韓國政府對美、中、朝決策進行定位。 最後，本文研究顯示，影響韓國政府於「與美國合作部署THAAD系統」決策的直接因素為，韓國官方與學術界所「認知」的朝鮮攻擊力量成長與朝鮮侵略意圖轉變。關鍵在於，2016年朝鮮進行第四次核試驗、朝鮮對韓國政策轉為強硬，以及2017年朝鮮進行第六次核試驗、數次洲際彈道飛彈試射，這些都令韓國「認知」朝鮮攻擊力量成長與朝鮮侵略意圖轉變，進而影響對THAAD議題決策。另外，美國安全利益、中國安全利益、中國安全顧慮、中國經濟利益、中國經濟顧慮、中國意圖，此六項為影響對THAAD議題決策的間接因素，而對於間接因素的論述主要來自韓國學術界與社會輿論，而非韓國官方論述。總體來說，韓國官方、學術界、社會輿論各種論述指出，這些直接、間接因素促使朴槿惠、文在寅政府對THAAD議題的決策，甚至導致朴槿惠前、後期對THAAD議題迥異的態度。

South Korea and the United States announced that they would cooperate to deploy Terminal High Altitude Area Defense（THAAD）system on July 8th, 2016. According to the authority of South Korea and the United States, the target of THAAD system is to deal with nuclear and missile threats from North Korea, not the third country. In fact, Park Geun-Hye just responded the United States’ proposal to deploy THAAD system by “3 Nos’” in 2015. Therefore, it is obvious that Park government changed the strategy on THAAD issue in 2016, from hedging between the United States and China to taking sides with the United States. What influence South Korea hedging between the United States and China？What influence Park government’s decision on THAAD issue？ To answer the above puzzles, this thesis follows the perspective on alliance theory, Balance Of Threat（BOT）and Balance Of Interest（BOI）. First, Analyzing the interests and concern of South Korea brought by the United States and China by four strategic motivations－security interest, security concern, economic interest, and economic concern. Then, analyzing the threats to South Korea posed by North Korea and China by four sources of threat－aggressive power, geographic proximity, , offensive power, and aggressive intention. Additionally, the timeline of this thesis include period of Park government and Moon government, and period of Park government is divided into period of early stage of Park government and later stage of Park government due to Park government’s strategy change in 2016. Finally, summarizing the influence of four strategic motivations and four sources of threat on South Korea government, and defining South Korea government’s strategy on spectrum strategy to the United States, China and North Korea. The research results show that the growing of North Korea’s offensive power and aggressive intention are direct factors influencing South Korea government’s decision on THAAD issue, which is “acknowledged” by the authority of South Korea and academia. The key to influencing South Korea government’s decision on THAAD issue are 4th nuclear test, North Korea’s policy toward South in 2016, 6th nuclear test and several Intercontinental ballistic missile（ICBM）launch in 2017. All of these make South Korea government “acknowledge” the growing of North Korea’s offensive power and aggressive intention and change decision on THAAD issue. Additionally, there are six indirect factors on influence of decision on THAAD issue, which is mainly discussed by academia and public opinion of South Korea. In conclusion, these direct and indirect factors which are discussed by the authority, academia and public opinion of South Korea induce Park government and Moon government to adopt strategy on THAAD issue. Especially, these factors changed Park government’s attitude toward THAAD issue in 2016.