人民幣做為國際準備貨幣之前景分析：考量社會體制的實證研究

Abstract

人民幣的潛在國際角色隨著中國經濟體規模的快速成長逐漸成為熱門議題。因過往以量化分析人民幣作為國際準備貨幣展望之主要文獻皆僅考量經濟基本面之變數，為了解社會體制條件對一國貨幣占國際準備貨幣比重的影響，除經濟面變數外，本研究還額外考量法治、監管品質以及民主程度三個社會體制面變數，並針對不同的經濟面與體制面情境對人民幣作為準備貨幣之前景進行預測。此研究將幫助全球投資人更全面的了解人民幣在不同條件下作為國際準備貨幣之展望。 本文以1996年至2023年美國、英國、日本、歐元區、中國五個經濟體的追蹤資料為樣本，藉由固定效應模型檢驗經濟基本面、資本管制與社會體制面各變數對一國貨幣占國際準備貨幣比重的影響。研究發現，國際貨幣使用慣性對國際準備貨幣比重的影響程度遠遠超過其他變數。其次，當一國的經濟規模、金融市場規模越大，該國貨幣占國際準備貨幣的比重將越高。在不考量國際貨幣使用慣性的前提下，經濟體規模、金融市場規模的影響程度將顯著提升。此外，一國在監管品質、法治、民主程度等社會體制面的表現越好，其貨幣占國際準備貨幣的比重也會越高。根據情境模擬結果，國際貨幣慣性仍是影響人民幣未來作為準備貨幣展望的最主要因素，由於現實中存有明顯的國際貨幣使用慣性，因此即便中國經濟體規模於2050年已接近甚至超越美國，在體制面的表現也追趕上歐美先進國家，人民幣作為準備貨幣的使用依然難以超越美元及歐元的地位。若未來中國在體制面的表現持續維持目前的水準而沒有顯著的提升，人民幣在國際準備中的比重甚至將難以追上英鎊與日圓。

As China's economy expands, the potential international role of the Renminbi has become an important issue. Existing literature mainly focuses on economic fundamentals. This study adds three social institutional variables—rule of law, regulatory quality, and degree of democracy—to understand their impact on currency internationalization. Using panel data from 1996 to 2023 for the US, UK, Japan, Eurozone, China, and employing a fixed effects model, this study analyzes the effects of different variables on the share of a currency in international reserves. This study finds that the inertia of international currency is the most important determinant of the currency share in international reserves. When a country's economic scale and financial market scale are larger, the country's currency will account for a higher proportion of the international reserve currencies. Better regulatory quality, rule of law, and degree of democracy are also determining factors for a country's currency proportion in international reserves. Scenario simulations indicate that the inertia of international currency will continue to dominate the Renminbi's prospects as an international reserve currency. Even with economic and institutional advancements by 2050, the Renminbi is unlikely to surpass the dollar and euro as an international reserve currency. If China's institutional performance continues to maintain the current level without significant improvement in the future, the Renminbi's share in international reserves will even be difficult to catch up with the British pound and the Japanese yen.