技術進步與其決定因素：台灣製造業與金屬機電業的實證分析

Abstract

本論文以台灣製造業2006-2016年和金屬機電工業2006-2011年及2006-2016年之產業橫剖面資料，運用C-D生產函數和Solow殘差法，先推估製造業27個中分類產業，以及金屬機電工業66個細分類產業的技術進步率，初步觀察台灣製造業項下各產業技術進步的情形。接著以金屬機電工業一個5年期（2006-2011）,一個10年期(2006-2016)兩期所推得的技術進步率為基礎，探討影響技術進步率之因素。發現技術進步率在各產業間的差異極大，但符合工業化以來產業發展的更替，即非傳統產業的新興科技產業，重化工業，以及機械業的表現較佳。另一發現為，所推得各業的技術進步率均為正值，避開了文獻中出現過負技術進步的情形。 在技術進步來源的實證分析部分，發現研發投入和技術購買對於技術進步率具有非常顯著之影響，且前者的影響力更大。數位化的普及程度也對技術進步率有促進作用，同時，薪資漲幅亦有利於技術的發展。本論文進一步探討了金屬機電工業中研發投入之滯後性，發現研發支出在滯後三期時可以發揮最大效用。

By using cross-sectional data of Taiwan’s manufacturing industry of 2006 and 2016 over 10-year span, and Taiwan’s metal electromechanical industry of 2006, 2011 and 2016, over two 5-year span, this study firstly applied C-D production function and Solow’s residual method to calculate the rate of technological progress of various industries. The results show that the non-traditional high-tech industry leads all others in technical progress, followed by heavy and chemical industry, so was the machinery industry. Regarding the source of, or the so-called endogenous technical progress, the study finds that all explained variables or hypotheses proposed show a positive effect. Especially, R&D investment (spending) and technology purchase bear strong and significant impact on technical progress. The degree of digitalization applied and the increase of wages also help technological progress. The study also explores the lagging effect of R&D investment in the metal electromechanical industry and finds that an investment in R&D will exert its best impact on technical progress three years later.