人民幣作為東亞國家匯率參考貨幣之現況分析

Abstract

由於中國的經濟規模日益擴大，以及中國政府實施人民幣國際化的政策，人民幣成為國際上主要貨幣的潛力，是近年來受到廣泛討論與研究的議題。本文目的在於探討人民幣作為東亞國家匯率參考貨幣的現況，藉由參考過往文獻改良的「權重推估法」，並加入數個可能影響匯率的控制變數，以 2005 年 1 月 1 日到 2024 年 3 月 26 日的日資料、週資料和月資料進行迴歸分析，並且對迴歸得出的結果進行穩固性檢定，包括使用不同計價標準和不同期間樣本重新進行迴歸，以確認本文的實證結果可信。 本文迴歸結果顯示，美元仍然是東亞各國最主要的參考貨幣。結果顯示，使用日資料進行迴歸時，人民幣對東亞各國的匯率有顯著的影響，但是以週資料和月資料進行迴歸時，人民幣的影響力大幅下降，而且對數個國家的匯率影響是不顯著的。本文發現，人民幣目前對東亞各國匯率的影響力遠低於美元。本文另一個值得注意的研究結果是，由於中國政府實施匯率改革，使用2015年8月11日後的資料進行迴歸時，和使用該日期之前的資料相比，不管是日資料、週資料或月資料，人民幣的係數和顯著性都有所提升，這顯示人民幣對於東亞貨幣匯率的影響力可能有上升趨勢。然而從現況來看，美元仍是東亞國家最大的參考貨幣，而儘管中國目前經濟規模已相當龐大，人民幣未來是否能大幅提高自身的國際影響力及成為東亞國家主要的參考貨幣，很大程度仍取決於中國政府對於貿易和資本管制等方面的政策方向。

Due to the increasing scale of China's economy and the Chinese government's policy of promoting the internationalization of the RMB, RMB’s potential of becoming a major international currency has become a subject of extensive discussion and research in recent years. The purpose of this thesis is to explore the current situation of the RMB as the exchange rate reference currency in East Asian countries. By referring to the improved "weighted estimation method" based on previous literature, and adding several control variables that may affect the exchange rate, daily, weekly and monthly exchange rate data from January 1, 2005 to March 26, 2024 are used for regression analysis. We also did several robustness tests, including re-regression using different numeraire and samples from different periods to confirm that the empirical results of this article are credible. The regression results of this thesis show that the US dollar is still the most important reference currency in East Asian countries. The results of this thesis indicate that when regressing with daily data, the RMB has a significant impact on the exchange rates of East Asian countries. However, when using weekly data and monthly data, the influence of the RMB decreases significantly, and the impact on the exchange rates of several countries is insignificant. The research results show that the RMB's influence on East Asia's exchange rates is much lower than that of the US dollar. Another noteworthy research result of this thesis is that, due to the exchange rate reform implanted by the Chinese government, when using data after August 11, 2015 for regression, whether it is daily data, weekly data or monthly data, the coefficient of RMB and its associated significance have increased compared to the results of using data before this date, which shows that the influence of RMB on the exchange rate of East Asian currencies may be on the rise. However, judging from the current situation, the US dollar is still the largest reference currency of East Asian countries. Although China's current economic scale is quite large, whether the RMB can significantly increase its international influence and become the main reference currency in East Asian countries in the future mainly depends on the policy direction of the Chinese government on trade and capital controls.