錦上添花或雪中送炭？中國各省低保的實證研究

Abstract

為了回應貧富差距擴大造成的社會矛盾，中國中央政府提出脫貧攻堅等以社會公平為宗旨的治理目標。有關中國福利擴展的研究，社會抗爭論認為地方政府透過增加社會支出、提升人民福利來避免維權抗爭並維持其統治正當性。也有學者指出，中國地方官僚和地方財務狀況，也對社會福利造成影響。或者，為響應近年來中國中央政府發佈「新型城鎮化」等政策目標，各個地方政府考量在地經濟特質和發展需要後，偏重施行不同社會政策。究竟中國地方福利差距是否依舊存在，以及中國地方福利擴張的關聯因素為何，是本文的關懷議題。鑑此，本研究希望透過實證方法分析地方社會抗爭，地方官僚與財務，地方工業生產與經濟發展所造成的中國地方福利差異。本研究選擇以施行歷史最悠久、也相對最公平的社會救助政策「低保」作為研究對象，搜集2007年至2021年間中國31省的政經數據，並透過縱貫分析法進行研究。研究設計上，以各省取得低保的城鎮與鄉村人數比例作為依變數，並將各省相關政經數據設為自變數。 根據實證分析結果，各省低保確實會因為地方公共安全支出比例、其他社會福利受惠者比例、工業化與都市化程度等因素，而具有顯著差異。另一方面，本研究發現城鎮與鄉村低保具有不同分配邏輯，甚至出現城鄉差距越大、鄉村低保資源越少的現象。據此，本研究推論，地方經濟環境與地方政府財務狀態對於低保而言具有最大影響力。換句話說，發展較佳的地方政府，才會有能力提供較完善的城鄉低保資源。所以，中國地方社會福利差異依舊存在之外，未來還可能出現反向重分配現象。

The Chinese central government has proposed governance objectives centered around social equity, such as poverty alleviation, to address the social contradictions arising from the widening wealth gap. Meanwhile, research on the expansion of welfare in China has led to various perspectives. The social protest perspective posits that local governments aim to prevent social unrest and maintain legitimacy by expanding social spending and improving people's welfare. On the other hand, scholars adopting a perspective of fragmented authoritarianism suggest that the bureaucratic structure and financial conditions at the local level in China may also influence social welfare outcomes. Furthermore, according to theories of productivist welfare capitalism or developmental welfare states, local governments may prioritize distinctive social policies based on regional economic characteristics and development needs. This paper addresses whether regional disparities in welfare still exist in China and explores the factors associated with expanding local welfare. This study empirically analyzes the relationships between local social protests, bureaucracy, finance, industrial production, economic development, and provincial welfare disparities. We collect political and financial data from 31 provinces in China from 2007 to 2021, focusing on "Dibao," the long-standing, prominent, and fairest social policy applied in China, and conduct panel analysis. Based on preliminary empirical research, it is evident that local Dibao varies significantly due to factors such as the proportion of local public security expenditure, the proportion of other social welfare beneficiaries, and the degree of industrialization and urbanization. On the other hand, this study finds that urban and rural Dibao follow heterogeneous distribution logics, with instances of more significant urban-rural disparities resulting in fewer pastoral Dibao resources. Consequently, this research concludes that the local economic environment and the financial status of local governments have the most significant influence on Dibao. In other words, better-developed local governments can provide more comprehensive urban and rural social welfare resources while capturing more possible human capital in the future. Therefore, not only will there be a phenomenon of redistribution from the poor to the rich, but regional disparities in social welfare may also persist in China and even worsen.