兩岸政治談判的基礎與結果～臺灣民眾的調查分析（2015-2022）

Abstract

長久以來，兩岸關係都是台灣與大陸民眾密切關注的話題，也是兩岸政府不可迴避的亟待解決的問題，更是東亞區域政治的重要研究方向。兩岸關係的和平發展關係著兩岸人民的福祉，兩岸關係的緊張和對抗不僅會對兩岸地區的經濟發展和社會穩定造成不利影響，也會對整個亞太地區的和平穩定帶來不良影響。只有實現和平發展，才能為兩岸地區的經濟商務往來以及人文交流提供穩定的政治環境，這也是為兩岸發展提供穩定的政治環境和實現政治互信的必要條件。 近年來由於新冠疫情以及多年的民進黨執政，兩岸的旅遊與學術往來大幅降低。要想推進兩岸的交流，進行兩岸之間的政治談判是必不可少的步驟。 本文通過分析2015至2021年臺灣大學社會科學院「中國大陸研究中心」所進行的研究調查資料，並利用「多項勝算對數迴歸分析」（multinomial logistic regression analysis） 建立人口學變數（性別、年齡、教育程度、戶籍），社會學變數（族群、採訪使用語言、常收看電視臺立場）及政治學變數（國族認同、國家認同、政黨認同）三方面，對兩岸政治談判的基礎與結果的解釋模型，以瞭解這些獨立變數對依變數的解釋能力。 研究發現台灣民眾整體對於兩岸進行政治談判是歡迎的，對於兩岸政治談判的基礎絕大部分都表示接受和認同，對於兩岸政治談判的結果，其中台灣民眾能夠接受的下限結果中，選擇偏向獨立立場的民眾比例最多，其次是維持現狀。台灣民眾最期待的還是「承認台灣是國家兩國建交」，其次是「永遠維持現狀」。對於結果的期待而言，國家認同以及國族認同是影響台灣民眾統獨傾向的主要因素，其次男性也更易偏向統一或統合的結果。感情認同仍是影響兩岸關係的主要因素，但理性自利的角度也讓較多民眾可以接受未來兩岸統一或統合的結果，不同年份波動的意願比例顯示政治情緒可能會影響民眾對兩岸談判的意願。

For a long time, cross-strait relations have been a topic of close concern for the people of Taiwan and mainland China, an issue that the governments on both sides of Taiwan and mainland China cannot avoid, and an important research direction in the regional politics of East Asia. The peaceful development of cross-strait relations is related to the well-being of the people on both sides of the Taiwan Straits. Tension and confrontation in cross-strait relations will not only adversely affect the economic development and social stability of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, but also the peace and stability of the entire Asia-Pacific region. Only through peaceful development can we provide a stable political environment for economic and commercial exchanges as well as humanistic exchanges between mainland China and Taiwan, which is also a necessary condition for providing a stable political environment for cross-strait development and realizing political mutual trust. In recent years, cross-strait tourism and academic exchanges have dropped dramatically. In order to promote cross-strait exchanges, political negotiation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is an essential step. In this paper, we analyzed the data from the research surveys conducted by Center of China Studies in College of Social Sciences of National Taiwan University from 2015 to 2021, and used multinomial logistic regression analysis to establish the demographic variables (gender, age, education level, household registration), sociological variables (ethnicity, language used in interviews, and language used in the interviews), and sociological variables (ethnicity, ethnicity, language used in interviews, and language used in the interviews). Demographic variables (gender, age, education level, household registration), sociological variables (ethnicity, language used in interviews, and position on frequently watched TV stations), and political variables (ethnic identity, national identity, and political party identity) were modeled to explain the basis and outcome of the cross-strait political negotiation, to understand the explanatory power of these independent variables on the dependent variables. The study finds that Taiwanese people in general welcome the cross-strait political talks, and most of them accept and agree with the basis of the cross-strait political talks. Regarding the outcome of the cross-strait political talks, among the lower limit of the outcome acceptable to Taiwanese people, the largest proportion of people opted for a more independent stance, followed by maintaining the status quo. Taiwan people's greatest expectation is "recognizing Taiwan as a country and establishing diplomatic relations between the two countries", followed by "maintaining the status quo forever". In terms of outcome expectations, national identity and ethnic identity are the main factors affecting Taiwanese inclination towards unification and independence, followed by men who are more likely to favor unification or integration. Emotional identity is still the main factor affecting cross-strait relations, but a rational self-interested perspective also allows more people to accept the outcome of cross-strait unification or reunification in the future. The fluctuating proportions of people's willingness to accept unification or reunification across the Taiwan Strait in different years suggests that political sentiments may have an impact on people's willingness to have cross-strait negotiations.