領土爭端與中國的鄰國地緣戰略： 以越南和菲律賓為例(1990-2020)

Abstract

自從1978年中國改革開放以來，其經貿實力快速增長、軍事實力不斷增強。而崛起的中國，也讓中國對其鄰國的地緣戰略被廣為討論。 中國疆土遼闊、海岸線綿長，在陸上與海上均面臨與周邊國家的領土主權爭議。中國和印度、不丹間的陸地邊界未明確劃定，三方接壤地區的邊界議題更為複雜；在海上，至今尚未能完全解決的南海爭端也涉及多個聲索國，包括菲律賓、越南、馬來西亞、汶萊與印尼。這些爭端若未妥善處理將影響中國的國際形象與未來的外交政策，對於中國宣稱的「和平崛起」不啻為一個挑戰。 「一帶一路」的實施、亞投行啟動以及《區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定》談判完成，當周邊國家接受加入這些由中國領頭的計畫，中國對其的影響力更進一步，也讓中國在與爭端國家交往時，有更多的籌碼來達成目的；但若中國過於強勢，則可能引起鄰國更多猜疑，有違其和平崛起的宣言且不利於中國日後外交。因此，中國與鄰國，尤其是有爭端的鄰國，在交往的過程中需要考量維護其國家利益、平息爭端，並且不引起鄰國反感而願意與中國繼續合作來往。 本研究旨在探討中國崛起後，對於與中國有領土爭端的小國的地緣戰略是如何進行，是否更加強勢，或是為了不招致鄰國更警戒及引起衝突而盡量採取和緩的方式？是否有效化解雙方衝突、和緩雙邊關係？ 本研究將探討1990年間至2020年間，中國與越南及菲律賓的互動。1990年代蘇聯解體後，中國力量的崛起也造成四鄰疑慮，「和平與發展」成為後冷戰時期中國外交的主軸，中國有更大的意願與周邊國家維持友好關係。菲律賓及越南均與中國在南海有未解決的領土爭端，且相對其他聲索國較為強硬，對中國政策的回應也相對較多，且中國是越、菲的重要貿易夥伴，能夠觀察經濟合作是否將因領土紛爭而受阻；其中越南實力較菲律賓更加強大，重疊之聲索區域也更多，可從此觀察中國對此兩國之地緣戰略是否有相似或相異。 本文提出2個研究假設。假設1：中國為維護其和平崛起及不威脅鄰國之形象，傾向於以和平手段維持並強化其控制力，於平時不主動進行強硬宣告與武力行為，但在他國主動升溫領土議題時，會做出強硬回應。有關假設1，發現中國與菲律賓的交往上符合，但與越南的互動卻部分不符合；在平時中國對於與越南有爭議的海域持續採取強硬行動並經常與越南發生爭端，但對與菲律賓有爭議的海域，在平時少有強硬行為。假設2為「為避免爭端升級為軍事衝突，中國將在雙方互動中採取友善措施為衝突降溫」從與菲律賓及越南的互動上來看該假設均成立，但實際上也取決於越南或菲律賓領導層是否願意接受中國的橄欖枝，若雙方皆有意願則能讓衝突降溫；但同時中國在南海宣示主權的行動亦從未停止，顯示中國雖然有意為衝突降溫，但也會持續護衛主權。 整體而言，面對與其有領土爭端的國家，中國在外交政治及經濟方面較傾向用友善的態度面對，當其他聲索國升溫主權問題時，中國也會透過政治外交手段強硬宣示主權；而在軍事方面，中國雖然從未發起過攻擊，但配備武力的巡航船隻、強力的執法行動、不停歇的填海造陸以及定期軍演等，在在展示中國的實力以及維護鞏固其在南海的主權，在軍事上中國始終保持較強硬的態度，於平時即鞏固其主權，造成一種中國控制該區域的既成事實，也因此不管在外交經濟上中國釋出多少善意，軍事上帶來的威嚇也讓鄰國無法相信中國「睦鄰」。

Since China’s reform and opening-up in 1978, China's economy and trade has grown rapidly and its military strength has increased continually. The rise of China has also led to widespread discussions on China’s geostrategic strategies toward its neighbor countries. China has a vast territory and long coastline, thus faces sovereignty disputes with neighboring countries along land and sea. The land borders between China, India, and Bhutan were not demarcated till now, and the borders among the three parties are more complicated. At sea, the unsolved South China Sea dispute also involves multiple claimants, include the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia. If these disputes are not handled properly, China's international image and foreign policy will be affected, and would be a challenge to China's "peaceful rise." With the launch of "One Belt, One Road", AIIB and RCEP, when neighboring countries accept those plans led by China, China's influence has further increased, therefore China has more bargaining chips to achieve its goals. However, China’s aggressive behavior may arouse more suspicion, which is harmful to contrary to its “peaceful rise” declaration and reputation. Therefore, China needs to consider how to safeguard its national interests and smooth disputes, at the meantime, not to arouse neighboring countries’ resentment and continue cooperating with China. This study wants to explore after China’s rising, how China's geostrategy work toward countries which have territorial disputes with. Is it becoming more aggressive, or is as gentle as possible in order not to arouse greater vigilance and conflicts? Is it effective in resolving conflicts between the two parties and easing bilateral relations? This study will observe China’s interactions with the Philippines and Vietnam from 1990 to 2020. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, China attracted more attention from Western countries. The rising China arises its neighbors’s suspicion, so "peace and development" became the main idea of China's diplomacy and it wants to maintain good relations with neighbors. The Philippines and Vietnam both have unresolved territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea, both are tougher than other claimants and so relatively have more reaction to China's action. Moreover, China is an important trading partner of the both, it would be easier to observe whether economic cooperation will be hampered by territorial disputes. Besides, Vietnam is more powerful than the Philippines and has more overlapping claim areas with China, we can see the comparison between China's geostrategic strategies toward the two. Two hypotheses are proposed. First, for maintaining its image of peaceful rising and non-threatening, China prefers to use peaceful means to maintain and strengthen its control over disputed areas, and does not take the initiative to make tough statements or use force in peacetime; however, when other countries heat up territorial issues proactively, China will give a tough response. It was found that China’s interactions with the Philippines are consistent with the hypothesis 1, but are partially consistent in Vietnam’s case. In normal times, China’s tough actions in disputed waters often cause disputes with Vietnam. But when it comes to the Philippines, tough behavior is rare in normal times. Second, to avoid the dispute escalating into a military conflict, China will take moderate measures to cool down the situation. Hypothesis 2 is confirmed from both cases. However, the counterpart’s attitude is important, it requires both sides have will to smooth the situation, the dispute can be cooled down. But China’s continuing demonstration of sovereignty in the South China Sea shows that although China intends to de-escalate the conflict, it will not give up its sovereignty. In conclusion, while facing other claimants, China tends to adopt a moderate action in terms of diplomacy, politics and economics. When there are sovereignty disputes, China would use tough political and economic means to declare sovereignty. In terms of military, although China has never launched an attack, its armed cruise ships, strong law enforcement operations, non-stop land reclamation, and regular military exercises in peace time create a fait accompli that China controls the area. Therefore, no matter how much goodwill China releases on diplomacy and economy, the intimidation made neighboring countries unable to believe in China's "good neighborliness".