出版社事業組合及暢銷好書出版策略分析：以天下文化出版為例

Abstract

台灣的出版環境與現況，就如英國作家狄更斯的名言「這是最好的年代，也是最壞的年代」。此時出版社面臨大環境挑戰，先有網路社群平台來襲、後有AI浪潮帶來新眼球經濟與學習經濟的轉移影響，出版產值在30年間幾近減半，實體書店減少三分之二，看似已到最壞的年代。而一直存在於出版產業內部的問題，諸如：市場小而競爭激烈、退書率與庫存率高、首印量縮小等，也未見有明確的解決方案。 那麼前述的「最好的年代」是指什麼？縱然出版有這麼多的挑戰與競爭，每年依然有超過4萬種以上的新書，以台灣的人口來換算，在全球僅次於英國的人均出版量（2020年統計），出版依舊「蓬勃」，出版的活力十足，仍在「最好年代」。 本論文研究天下文化的出版事業發展，以及暢銷好書選擇矩陣，試著以「出版社事業組合」策略分析，因應大環境的挑戰；以暢銷好書的出版策略，為出版社的經營找出持續發展與品牌經營之道。 出版經營最難之處，在於降低商品的「市場不確定性」。本論文的研究結論提出：出版品牌的塑造是「文化商品」穩定發展的主因，透過「價值差異化」，培養核心讀者群，是出版社在未來不確定性市場的發展路徑。

"Taiwan’s publishing environment and current situation are akin to the famous quote by British author Charles Dickens: ‘It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.’ At present, publishing houses face significant environmental challenges. First, there is the onslaught of social media platforms, followed by the impact of the AI wave, which has shifted attention to new eyeball economics and learning economics. Over the past 30 years, the value of the publishing industry has nearly halved, and physical bookstores have decreased by two-thirds, making it seem like the worst of times. However, despite these challenges, Taiwan continues to publish over 40,000 new titles annually. When considering the population size, Taiwan ranks second globally in per capita publishing volume, trailing only behind the United Kingdom (based on 2020 statistics). Publishing remains vibrant and full of vitality, even in these challenging times. This thesis explores the development of the publishing business at Commonwealth Publishing and analyzes the matrix for selecting bestselling books. It attempts to address the environmental challenges through a strategic analysis of the publishing business portfolio. By focusing on the publication strategy for bestselling books, publishers can find a sustainable path for development and brand management. The most challenging aspect of publishing management lies in mitigating the ‘market uncertainty’ associated with products. The research conclusion of this thesis suggests that shaping a publishing brand is crucial for stable cultural product development. By emphasizing ‘value differentiation’ and cultivating a core readership, publishers can navigate the uncertain market landscape."