就業機會、房價與消費-以南科為例

Abstract

本研究將運用動態差異中之差異法分析2016年到2021年的各種資料庫，包括：內政部實價登錄資料庫、財政部財政資訊中心財稅資料庫的歷年契稅資料與電子發票資料庫，了解近年來規模較大的科技業擴廠，也就是2019年台積電南科18廠擴廠所帶來的就業機會進而如何影響房價、房屋買家的組成與當地消費。在排除市區與交易量少的區域後，挑選建廠與周圍區域，即善化區、新市區、安定區、永康區、新化區、山上區六區作為實驗組，台南市剩餘的20區為控制組。結果發現台積電擴廠完工後，確實帶動當地受雇人口及電子業從業人員購屋的比例上升，但短期內並未導致房價直接攀升。直到一至兩年後，南科附近消費活動逐漸熱絡，房屋買家的平均收入也水漲船高，這時房價才出現明顯的上揚走勢。而2021年新冠疫情，台積電訂單擴增的時候，電子零組件製造業平均年薪成長，搜尋台積電南科的熱度也達到高峰，這些因素可能使得南科在18廠擴廠後，又進一步推升了房價。整體結果顯示，南科在 18 廠擴廠後，確實對一個地方的經濟成長有所幫助，並推動了房價的上漲。

This study employs the dynamic difference-in-differences method to analyze various databases from 2016 to 2021, including the Ministry of the Interior's Real Price Registration Database, the Fiscal Information Center's Deed Tax Database, and the Electronic Invoice Database. The goal is to understand how large-scale expansions in the technology industry in recent years, specifically the expansion of TSMC's Fab 18 in 2019, have influenced housing prices, the composition of home buyers, and local consumption. After excluding urban areas and regions with low transaction volumes, the study selects the areas surrounding the construction site, namely the districts of Shanhua, Xinshi, Anding, Yongkang, Xinhua, and Shanshang, as the experimental group, with the remaining 20 districts in Tainan City serving as the control group. The results show that after TSMC's expansion, there was an increase in the proportion of employed individuals and electronics industry workers purchasing homes in the local area. However, this did not lead to an immediate rise in housing prices in the short term. Only after one to two years, as local consumption activities near Tainan Science Park began to thrive and the average income of home buyers rose, housing prices showed a significant upward trend. In 2021, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, TSMC's orders surged, increasing the average annual salary in the electronic components manufacturing industry. The search interest for TSMC in Tainan Science Park also peaked. These factors further pushed up housing prices following the expansion of Fab 18. The overall results indicate that the expansion of TSMC's Fab 18 in the Tainan Science Park has indeed contributed to local economic growth and driven up housing prices.