出口廠商型態、關稅、以及匯率彈性：台灣實證

Abstract

本論文進行三篇實證研究，我們藉由合併台灣廠商的營業所得稅檔案以及海關進出口的交易資料，建立具詳盡且細緻的資料集來分析重要的國際貿易議題。

第一章研究利用台灣海關在廠商-產品-目的地國家層級的資料勾勒出台灣出口廠商的貿易型態，並討論國際貿易實證文獻中已被呈現的六項典型事實。分別是:(1)參與出口的廠商僅是少數; (2)出口廠商與國內市場廠商在生產特性上具有差異性; (3)出口高度集中在極少數超級巨星廠商; (4)出口商的產品種類增減驅動出口值的變動; (5)多產品出口商為出口的主力; 以及 (6)出口商的產品組合中具有少數核心產品。最後我們也提出未來研究上可能的討論方向。

我們在第二章分析2018至2019年的美中貿易大戰對於台灣製造業廠商出口的影響。研究主要係利用台灣廠商-產品-目的國家別的海關出口交易資料，同時也合併廠商營所稅與勞保檔案，藉以取得行業別以及廠商員工人數資訊。我們透過三種管道分析美國對中國進口產品的貿易戰關稅效果: 對於加徵關稅產品的直接關稅，以及受到貿易戰關稅效果的產品在透過供應鏈關係而影響其上游產品的間接關稅，定義為下游關稅; 另外，影響其下游產品的間接關稅，則定義作上游關稅。實證結果顯示貿易戰直接關稅造成製造業廠商出口至美國具有貿易移轉效果。同時，貿易戰關稅的效果可能被間接關稅所推動。這些結果隱含全球供應鏈在美中貿易衝突下具有重組的可能性。我們也分析廠商異質性對於貿易戰關稅的影響。結果發現貿易戰關稅對於出口的正向效果主要是來自電子業在過往與中國有出口經驗，或是規模較大型的廠商。

使用台灣海關的出口交易資料，我們發現以美元作為報價幣別的交易大約占台灣九成的出口交易額，遠超過出口至美國的貿易份額。此項模式表明美元為台灣出口的主導性通貨。在主導性通貨報價的框架下，第三章研究著手估計美元匯率對台灣出口價格的影響。我們利用台灣2010至2021年的出口交易資料進行分析，結果顯示當期的出口價格匯率彈性接近0.6，並且至兩年後下降到0.4。此外，美元匯率的影響已經遠超過雙邊匯率。我們也分析新台幣升值與貶值的不對稱性反應，且實證結果發現不對稱性的程度取決於匯率變化的幅度。我們發現在小幅度的匯率變動下具有完全的不對稱性反應，而在大幅度的變動則呈現部份的不對稱性。當出口商面對新台幣小幅升值時的出口價格匯率彈性接近1，在小幅貶值時則接近0。另外，在大幅度的匯率變動下，新台幣升值對出口價格的影響大過於貶值的影響。這些結果隱含廠商在面臨匯率變動時展現的訂價策略可能是為了維持國外市場的市占率。

This dissertation sets out to conduct three empirical studies addressing essential research questions in international trade using highly disaggregated data set created by merging firm-level data from the corporate income tax files with transaction-level data on imports and exports from Taiwan's customs.

The first chapter provides a portrait of Taiwan's exporters using Taiwanese customs data at the firm-product-country level. We discuss six stylized facts on the pattern of exporters that have been exhibited in empirical international trade literature. First, firm engagement in export is relatively rare. Second, exporters and non-exporters show distinct differences in firm performance. Third, exports are highly concentrated among a few export superstars. Fourth, product churning within exporters drives the change in exports. Fifth, multi-product exporters comprise a large share of aggregate exports. Finally, there are a few core products in the product mix of exporters. We also discuss possible future research directions at the end of this chapter.

The second chapter investigates the impact of the US-China Trade War in 2018-2019 on the exports of Taiwanese manufacturing firms. The primary dataset is the firm-product-country level exports from Taiwan's customs. It is combined with the corporate income tax files and labor insurance files to obtain industry classification and number of employees. We analyze the effects on US trade war tariffs on imports from China through three channels: direct tariff on the products that are subject to the tariffs, indirect tariffs on products that are in the upstream in the supply chains of the products that are subject to the trade war tariffs (defined as downstream tariffs), and indirect tariffs on products that are in the downstream in the supply chains of the products that are subject to the trade war tariffs (defined as upstream tariffs). Our findings suggest that direct tariffs have a trade diversion effect on manufacturing firms' exports to the US, and that the impact of trade war tariffs is likely more driven by indirect tariffs. These results imply the possibility of restructuring global supply chains resulted from the US-China trade tensions. We also explore firm heterogeneity in the impact of trade war tariffs. We find that the positive effects of the trade war tariffs on electronics firms are mainly on firms with prior experience of exporting to China and on larger firms.

Using Taiwan’s export data at the transaction level, we find that 90 percent of Taiwan's exports are invoiced in the US dollars, which is significantly above the share of exports to the United States. This pattern suggests that the US dollar is the dominant vehicle currency for Taiwan's exports. Under dominant currency pricing (DCP) framework, the third chapter sets out to estimate the effects of US dollar exchange rate on Taiwan's export price. Using 2010-2021 transaction-level export data from Taiwan's customs our results show that the exchange rate elasticity on export price is close to 0.6 in the short-run and reduced to 0.4 after two years; however, there is little impact of bilateral exchange rate. We also investigate asymmetric effects of home currency appreciations and depreciation. Our findings suggest that the degree of asymmetry depends on the magnitude of exchange rate changes. We find full asymmetry for small exchange rate movements and partial asymmetry for large exchange rate movements. The exchange rate elasticity is close to 1 when facing small appreciation of the Taiwan dollar and close to 0 when encountering small depreciation. With large exchange rate movements, the effects of currency appreciation on export price are larger than those of currency depreciations. These findings seem to suggest that firms use pricing strategy to maintain market shares in foreign markets when experiencing exchange rate movements.