澳門長期照顧服務人力資源需求推估

Abstract

澳門人口增加且存有老化問題，澳門總人口於2002至2021年增加242.7千人，且65歲以上人口比例不斷攀升，2021年澳門65歲以上人口佔比達12.2%，高齡社會趨勢明顯。為因應此挑戰，政府於2016年實施「長者服務十年行動計劃」，強調「原居安老」成為首選。政府除了投入資金外，亦注重維持足夠人力資源，以滿足高齡者多樣需求。政府計劃以應對高齡化問題，提供全方位服務，包括免費醫療、失智症護理等。高齡者對醫療及照顧服務需求龐大，公共醫療求診量已達48萬人次。面對老化現象，高齡者需求不同程度的醫療服務，且對家庭照顧者產生多層次壓力。本研究旨在透過整理長照服務所需人力類型，根據澳門現行照顧服務模式，利用澳門統計暨普查局的2023-2041年人口預測，採用「以需求為基礎」的推估研究方法，從而推估2023-2041年澳門長期照顧服務在中程度、高程度、低程度中，住院服務、急診服務、門診服務、手術服務、物理治療服務、職能治療服務及心理治療服務的人力需求。本研究發現，以2023年為基準，至2041年的人力需求由低推估至高推估，住院服務增加1,724至1,956人、急診服務增加11,503至13,055人、門診服務增加57,928至65,744人、手術服務增加566至642人、物理治療服務增加2至9人、職能治療服務增加4至14人、心理治療服務增加1人。本研究最後提出政府相應的政策、人力分配和培訓建議。

Macau's population has been increasing, leading to an aging demographic. Between 2002 and 2021, the total population increased by 242.7 thousand people, with the proportion of individuals aged 65 and above continuously rising. In 2021, the elderly population in Macau accounted for 12.2%, signaling a clear trend towards an aging society. To address this challenge, the government implemented the ''Ten-Year Action Plan for the Elderly'' in 2016, emphasizing ''aging in place'' as the primary choice. Apart from investing funds, the government also focuses on maintaining an adequate workforce to meet the diverse needs of the older people. The government''s plan aims to provide comprehensive services to tackle the aging issue, including free medical care and dementia care, among others. There is a significant needs among the older people for medical and caregiving services, evidenced by public healthcare consultations reaching 480,000 visits. As the aging population exhibits varying healthcare service needs, this situation generates multilayered pressure on family caregivers. This study aims to address the human resource needs for long-term care services by categorizing required personnel types. Using Macau''s population projections from the Statistics and Census Service for 2023-2041, employing a ''demand-based'' estimation method aligned with Macau''s current caregiving service model, the study estimates the human resource requirements for inpatient services, emergency services, outpatient services, surgical services, physical therapy, occupational therapy, and psychological therapy in Macau for the period of 2023-2041 under moderate, high, and low scenarios. This research reveals that from the baseline year of 2023, the projected human resource needs by 2041 ranges from low to high estimates: an increase of 1,724 to 1,956 personnel for inpatient services, 11,503 to 13,055 for emergency services, 57,928 to 65,744 for outpatient services, 566 to 642 for surgical services, 2 to 9 for physical therapy services, 4 to 14 for occupational therapy services, and an additional one personnel for psychological therapy services. Finally, this study offers corresponding policy recommendations, manpower allocation strategies, and training suggestions for the government.