碳排放與經濟成長之關係

Abstract

本文以經濟合作發展組織 38 個會員國及 5 大關鍵合作夥伴作為研究對象，使用各國 1981 至 2018 年之追蹤資料針對碳排放與經濟成長進行迴歸分析，實證結果顯示人均能源消費量、石化燃料佔發電比重、政府支出、碳消費及淨儲蓄等變數對人均 GDP 與人均 CO2 排放之關係具有顯著的影響力。在因果關係上，本研究使用研究國家(43 國)1851 年至 2018 年之資料對人均 GDP 與人均 CO2 排放進行Granger 因果檢定，實證結果顯示能源結構仰賴化石燃料的主要工業國家在人均GDP 與人均碳排放大多呈現互相影響關係；人均碳排放領先影響人均 GDP 的國家多為低碳能源結構，高度開採資源、重工業及加工出口的經濟體；人均碳排放與人均 GDP 無領先影響的國家則多為高所得及低碳能源的經濟體，產業上多為農、林業及金融服務業。另外，當選取落後期數較長時，人均碳排放與人均 GDP有較明顯的領先影響關係，這關係視國家的能源結構是否仰賴化石燃料及產業主體是否會產生碳排放而定。

This article takes 38 member states of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and 5 key partners as the research object. It uses the Panel data of each country from 1981 to 2018 conducts an regression analysis on carbon emissions and economic growth. Empirical results show that variables such as per capita energy consumption, the proportion of fossil fuels in power generation, government expenditures, carbon consumption and net savings have a significant impact on the relationship between GDP per capita and CO2 emissions per capita. In Cause-Effect analysis, this article uses the data of 43 countries from 1851 to 2018 to conduct a Granger causality test on GDP per capita and CO2 per capita emissions. The empirical results show that major industrial countries whose energy structure relies on fossil fuels mostly show an interactive relationship between GDP per capita and carbon emissions per capita ; countries whose carbon emissions per capita lead the way in influencing GDP per capita mostly have low-carbon energy structures and are highly resource exploited, heavy industry and export processing economies; countries with no leading impact on carbon emissions per capita and GDP per capita are mostly high-income and low-carbon energy economies, and their industries are mostly agriculture, forestry and financial services. When the lag period is longer, carbon emissions per capita have a clear leading relationship with GDP per capita. This relationship depends on whether the country''s energy structure relies on fossil fuels and whether industrial entities produce carbon emissions.