美中疫苗外交對東協國家之影響—以越南及柬埔寨為例

Abstract

自2016年美國總統川普當選後，美中競爭的態勢越趨頻繁。從美中貿易戰、科技戰，再到新型冠狀病毒（COVID-19）爆發後的激烈爭論，都顯示出美中競爭的情況趨向常態化，並且競爭的議題也逐漸朝多樣化發展。本文聚焦於美中在國際上的疫苗援助，認為疫苗外交乃是美中常態競爭下的新型態的競爭模式，旨在透過疫苗援助，取得國際支持、拉攏盟友、擴張國家影響力。 2020年初新型冠狀病毒於全球肆虐，各地疫情不斷升溫，全球死亡人數也持續增加。中國作為疫情最早爆發的國家，在疫情之初隱匿疫情的行為，導致其國際形象下降。為了改善其身為負責任大國的形象，中國以對外援助的手段先是發展口罩外交，隨後又開啟疫苗外交，成為最早開始向國外輸出疫苗的國家之一。然而，中國的疫苗外交被西方媒體認為是帶有目的性的援助，甚至可能在被援助國之中成為擴張影響力的手段。基於這些疑問，本文將從美中兩國在東南亞地區的疫苗援助，分析美中疫苗外交有無對東協國家在特定議題上的態度產生影響。 研究發現，中國的疫苗外交影響了東南亞六國在南海、一帶一路、湄公河等議題上對中國的態度趨向更正面；反觀，在美國投入疫苗援助後，部分東南亞六國在特定議題中對中國的正面態度也稍有減緩。儘管如此，筆者觀察發現，在越南與柬埔寨中的數據出現有別於過往研究的結果，因此研究後半段分別針對越南與柬埔寨進行最不可能案例（least likely cases）研究。

Since the election of President Trump in 2016, the rivalry between the United States and China has become increasingly frequent. From the U.S.-China trade war to the tech war, and then the intense disputes that erupted after the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), it is evident that the U.S.-China competition has shifted towards normalization, with a gradual diversification of competition issues. This article focuses on international vaccine assistance by the United States and China, arguing that vaccine diplomacy represents a novel form of competition in the context of ongoing U.S.-China rivalry. The goal is to gain international support, court allies, and expand national influence through vaccine assistance. In early 2020, the novel coronavirus spread globally, leading to escalating outbreaks and a continuous rise in global death tolls. As the country where the pandemic first erupted, China's initial concealment of the virus damaged its international image. In an effort to improve its image as a responsible great power, China initiated what is known as "mask diplomacy" and subsequently launched "vaccine diplomacy," becoming one of the earliest countries to export vaccines to foreign nations. However, China's vaccine diplomacy has been viewed by Western media as purpose-driven aid and even a means to expand its influence in recipient countries. In light of these concerns, this article will analyze the impact of U.S. and Chinese vaccine diplomacy on the attitudes of Southeast Asian countries, focusing on the East Asian region. The research findings indicate that China's vaccine diplomacy has influenced the Southeast Asian nations' attitudes toward China more positively on specific issues such as the South China Sea, Belt and Road Initiative, and the Mekong River. Conversely, after the United States engaged in vaccine assistance, some Southeast Asian countries have slightly tempered their positive attitudes toward China on certain issues. Nevertheless, the author observes results in Vietnam and Cambodia that differ from previous research, prompting a further examination of these least likely cases in the latter part of the study.