臺灣對美國與日本的出口貿易變動之探討

Abstract

本文資料採用1988~2022年期間資料，研究台灣對主要貿易對手國：日本及美國，對各貿易對手國的出口變動因素綜合討論，觀察進口國所得、實質匯率、物價指數、進口因素對台灣出口變動的影響，實質匯率及物價指數皆對台灣的出口變動影響效果不顯著。 然而從日本及美國進口皆對台灣的出口有顯著影響，且其自身落後期亦有顯著效果。由於台灣為小型開放體系，經濟發展係以推動以出口為導向，隨著產業結構改變，台灣的對外貿易依存度相當高，進出口關聯性也高，實證結果證明國外所得及進口因素亦是不可或缺的因素，對台灣出口產生的實質變動影響。 實證結果分析可得：(1)進口國所得變動對台灣出口成長變動影響最大。(2)前期出口值會對當期出口值產生影響。(3)實質匯率變動對台灣出口的影響，因台灣出口同時須仰賴進口中間財的特性有關，因「產業關聯效果」使得匯率貶值可能部分抵銷。 一般文獻探討實質匯率對出口的影響，央行採行的貨幣政策多採行「匯率貶值政策」，藉由低估國幣幣值來改善貿易條件，還可能因「以鄰為壑」造成貿易對手國競相爭貶，導致產生的出口成長效果並不明顯，是以要提高台灣出口成長，尚須考慮其他總體因素產生的質與量影響效果。

The study examines the factors influencing export factors from Taiwan to Japan and the United States from 1988 to 2022. Comprehensive discussions on the export dynamics to each trading partner are conducted, utilizing statistical data. comprising a sample size of 420 monthly data points. The analysis observes the impact of the importing country's income, real exchange rate, price index, and import factors on Taiwan's export variations. The results indicate that both the real exchange rate and price index do not exhibit a significant effect on Taiwan's export trade. However, the import values from Japan and the United States significantly influence Taiwan's export trade, with their lagged terms also exhibiting a significant effect. It can be reasoned that Taiwan, as a small open economy with export orientation, demonstrates high trade dependence and correlation due to economic development and changes in industry structure over the years. The empirical findings affirm that foreign income and import factors are indispensable contributors to the real variations in Taiwan's export trade. Analyzing the empirical results: 1. Changes in the importing country's income have the most significant impact on Taiwan's export growth. 2. Previous-period export values affect the current-period export values. 3. Variations in the real exchange rate impact Taiwan's export values. However, the effects are partially offset due to the characteristics of Taiwan's exported goods relying on imported intermediate goods and “the industry interconnection effect”. Traditional studies often explore the export value variations caused by changes in the real exchange rate. Central banks frequently adopt a "depreciation policy" through undervaluing the domestic currency to improve trade conditions. However, the study suggests that the growth effect of exports may not be significant, and to enhance Taiwan's export growth, consideration must be given to other macroeconomic factors affecting the quality and quantity of the effects.