台灣出口集中度對出口成長與經濟成長影響之實證分析

Abstract

在過去的十年中，出口對於台灣經濟的貢獻持續攀升。根據財政部的統計數據顯示，從2011年至2021年，出口金額一直占台灣GDP比率的一半以上。以2021年為例，台灣的出口依存度高達57.58%，顯示出口對台灣經濟的重要性。此外，過去十年間，台灣前八大出口貨品所占出口總額的比例一直在七成以上，顯示出台灣為出口高度集中的國家，高出口集中對經濟成長是否有正面或負面影響呢?是本論文所要探討的主題。 為了了解出口集中度長期變化的情形及出口集中度與台灣出口成長率與GDP成長率的關係，本研究使用台灣1952年至2021年的貿易統計資料，利用向量自我迴歸模型（Vector Autoregression model）實證了解出口集中度對出口成長率與GDP成長率的影響。接著，亦利用衝擊反應函數，從外生衝擊的角度來了解其對出口成長率與GDP成長率的影響程度。最後使用Granger因果關係檢定方法來判斷是否存在著變數間的Granger因果關係。 研究結果指出，台灣出口集中度在1952年至2021年間平均CR8達82%，HHI為0.21，相對較其他國家偏高。此外，實證結果發現「CR8集中度的落後1、2期」及「HHI集中度的落後2期」對於台灣當期國內生產毛額成長率和出口總值成長率均呈現顯著負向關係，符合一般的實證結果，亦即出口集中度愈高，出口成長率及GDP成長率愈低，因此政府對台灣高度的出口集中應予重視。

Over the past decade, exports have consistently played an increasingly significant role in Taiwan's economy. According to statistics from the Ministry of Finance, from 2011 to 2021, export value consistently accounted for over half of Taiwan's GDP ratio. Taking 2021 as an example, Taiwan's export dependency reached a high of 57.58%, underscoring the importance of exports to the Taiwanese economy. Furthermore, over the past decade, the proportion of the top eight exported goods to the total export value has remained above 70%, highlighting Taiwan as a nation with a highly concentrated export structure. This concentration of exported goods prompts the question of whether it positively impacts economic growth. It’s the main issue of the study. To comprehend the long-term dynamics of export concentration and its interplay with Taiwan's total exports and GDP growth rates, this study utilizes trade statistics data from Taiwan spanning 1952 to 2021. The research employs the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to specifically discern the lagged-period correlations among variables. Subsequently, impulse response functions are employed to gain insight into the impact of exogenous shocks on exports and GDP growth rates. Lastly, the Granger causality test is utilized to ascertain the existence of Granger causality relationships between variables. The research findings show that Taiwan's export concentration, measured by CR8, averaged 82% from 1952 to 2021, with an HHI of 0.21, relatively higher than other countries. Empirical results further confirm a significant negative link between "lagged 1st and 2nd periods of CR8 concentration" and "lagged 2nd period of HHI concentration," and both current domestic gross production and export value growth rates in Taiwan. These outcomes align with general empirical trends, underscoring the need for the government to address Taiwan's high export concentration.