茶菁採收價格與產量的因子分析-以南投縣名間鄉為例

Abstract

穩定的價格及產量是影響農產品產業發展的核心問題，然而農產品由於其生鮮時效性，大幅降低可調整之彈性，形成淺盤經濟模式、價格容易大幅度波動。尤其茶葉的主要原料：茶菁鮮葉，由於在採收後當日需立即進行加工生產，極短的時效性使得茶菁鮮葉無法透過拍賣等方式進行交易，也使得茶菁鮮葉的價格形成極其明顯的地域性特徵。 本研究以台灣茶最大宗之茶葉產地-南投縣名間鄉為研究對象，蒐集2021~2022年產季期間包含茶菁鮮葉採收價格、收成數量與氣候因子紀錄等相關種植條件數據，包含茶樹年齡、品種、農友個人資料等，進行計量迴歸分析探討其個別因子所帶來的影響程度。 研究結果發現影響茶菁採收價格的因素包含茶樹品種、氣溫、降雨量(累積降雨天數)，而影響產能的因素則是茶樹品種、茶樹樹齡以及氣溫；由於研究對象之採收方式以機器採收為主，故農友個人特徵並未體現顯著關係。 茶葉種植者的心態也符合生產者理論，目的在於追求利潤最大化。本研究結果有利於種植者依據研究數據，綜合評估更有效、更科學地增加生產者剩餘的種植方式。

How to stabilized market prices and production yield has been considered as the main factors affecting the development of the agricultural industries. However, the shelf lives of agricultural may increase market price fluctuation which could lead to a thin market. This is particularly true for fresh tea leaves, the main material of tea leaves. The leaves are required to be manufactured immediately after the harvest. The urgency of the processing prohibits fresh tea leaves to be traded by auction markets, which contributes to a significant regional difference in prices of tea leaves. The mingjian township is located in the Nantou county and it is the greatest tea planted cultivated area in Taiwan. This area is the study area in this paper. In order to investigate the impacts on the prices and the yield of fresh tea leaves, we collect data on the ages and species of tea plants, the weather conditions as well as the personal information of the cultivators during the seasons of production in 2021 and 2022. The results of the research indicates that the market prices of fresh tea leaves were highly dependent on the species of tea plants, the temperature and the precipitation of rain (regarding to the total number of raining day), whereas the amount of production was affected by the ages, the species of tea trees and also the temperature. Since the tea leaves were mostly harvested by machines, neither the prices nor the yield showed a strong correlation to the personal information of the cultivators.The attitudes of those tea cultivators echo the finding of the production theory, which reflects the purpose of maximization of profit. This research provides a scientific evaluation to cultivators to improve the efficiency of the tea cultivation in the future.