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標題: | 貨幣權力不對等與台灣對美國貨幣政策的因應策略 Monetary Power Asymmetry and Taiwan's Reaction Strategy to U.S. Monetary Policy |
作者: | 劉昶佑 Chang-Yu Liu |
指導教授: | 左正東 Chen-Dong Tso |
關鍵字: | 美元,霸權,貨幣權力,台灣,匯率操縱國,去美元化, US Dollar,Hegemony,Monetary Power,Taiwan,Currency Manipulator,De-dollarization, |
出版年 : | 2023 |
學位: | 博士 |
摘要: | 美國是當前國際體系中的霸權國,而且其發行的美元貨幣則是從二次戰後就享有著貨幣霸權的地位,雖然在布列敦體系瓦解之後,美元的價值與價格受到眾多質疑,但至今這些懷疑並不影響美元的貨幣霸權。討論美元的貨幣霸權,過往主要的角度都是限定在國際貨幣權力的範疇,並且多聚焦在美國的視野,但是這樣的討論卻只注意到「貨幣權力不對等」的結構下,擁有貨幣權力的一方(即是美國),而忽略了美元貨幣權力的接受者,也就是美國的貿易對手國,這些國家的立場與思維邏輯,究竟對於美元霸權有何種的態度?以及對於美國所施展的貨幣權力,只能被動接受?抑或是存在「非合作」或是對抗的可能選項?
對此,本論文主要是從台灣的立場作為出發點,討論在不同經濟週期的背景下,美國會施行何種的貨幣操控與貨幣權力?而台灣作為美國的主要貿易夥伴之一,面對到不同的經濟環境,以及美國所施展的貨幣權力,究竟會如何回應?而且為了凸顯台灣回應美元貨幣霸權的獨特性,本研究將韓國、泰國與馬來西亞作為對照組,透過地緣與政經結構的相似性,藉此比較出台灣與其他貿易對手國的差異之處。 本研究發現在美國處於經濟衰退時期,將會對貿易對手國施展「劫掠型貨幣操控」,台灣與東亞國家會面臨到美國的「劫掠權力」與「轉移權力」,雖然多數國家無法對於「劫掠權力」進行反抗,但是對於「轉移權力」,縱然美國是以「匯率操縱國報告」作為施壓工具,但像是台灣、越南等具有著強烈「新重商主義」的貿易對手,則是會盡可能地採取「非合作」的策略,方能持續賺取更多的國家財富。 而當美國處於經濟成長時期,由於聯準會進入升息週期而造成強勢美元,使得美國在此一時期施展的是「放任型貨幣操控」,對於貿易對手國則是行使「重定價權力」與「遞延權力」。但由於「放任型貨幣操控」的效果,並不會造成劫掠經濟的作用,這也使得個別國家所面對的衝擊,主要是強勢美元所帶來的外溢效果─美元回流與通貨膨脹。 根據本研究的發現,此時台灣與其他東亞國家最大的差別,在於台灣會利用此一時期的通貨膨脹進行貨幣金融操作,也就是讓國內保持著相當程度的通膨,使國內長期處於負實質利率的狀態。我們可以得知台灣央行一方面讓國內的升息幅度低於美國,有利於賺取兩者間的利差;而國內存在通膨,則是會讓新台幣匯率傾向於貶值波動。而其他東亞國家則是會盡力打擊通膨,使得各國長期存在正實質利率的狀態。 最後,本研究依據當前最熱門的「去美元化」避險策略,檢驗了三種「去美元化」的替代選項:第一種是用黃金替代美元,但此一作法不利於當前國際貿易的往來,而且單一國家所持有的黃金存量也相對有限;其二則是用其他國際流通貨幣來替代美元,但從數據上進行驗證,發現不論是英鎊、歐元或是日圓,一樣會遭受到相關的貨幣權力,對於替代美元而言,並沒有優越性或利益可言。最後一種作法則是使用人民幣或是「本幣貿易結算」來取代美元,但所面臨到的最大問題,這些貨幣都不屬於國際流通貨幣,加入外匯存底當中恐怕會讓央行資產變得更為複雜且難以管理。 This paper primarily takes Taiwan's perspective as a starting point to explore the kind of monetary policy control and exercise of monetary power the United States would implement in different economic cycles. As one of the key trading partners of the United States, Taiwan faces varying economic environments and the monetary power wielded by the U.S. How should Taiwan respond? To highlight Taiwan's unique response to U.S. monetary hegemony, this study selects South Korea, Thailand, and Malaysia as comparative cases, comparing the differences between Taiwan and other trading competitors based on geographical and politico-economic similarities. This study reveals that during periods of economic recession in the United States, 'predatory monetary policy' will be applied to trading partner countries. Taiwan and East Asian nations will confront the U.S.'s 'predatory power' and 'transfer power.' While most countries may struggle to counter the 'predatory power,' trade competitors like Taiwan and Vietnam, characterized by strong 'neo-mercantilism,' adopt 'non-cooperative' strategies to continue accumulating national wealth. During periods of U.S. economic growth, with the Federal Reserve entering a tightening cycle, a strong dollar prompts the U.S. to pursue a 'laissez-faire monetary policy,' exercising 'repricing power' and 'deferment power' over trading partner countries. However, due to the non-plundering effects of the 'laissez-faire monetary policy,' the challenges individual countries face are primarily the spillover effects generated by the strong dollar, including dollar repatriation and inflation. Based on this research, the most significant difference between Taiwan and other East Asian nations when the U.S. experiences economic growth is that Taiwan utilizes inflation for currency and financial operations to maintain a relative level of inflation, keeping the domestic economy in a state of negative real interest rates. The Central Bank of Taiwan ensures that domestic interest rate hikes remain below those of the U.S., facilitating the earning of interest rate differentials. Simultaneously, inflation tendencies lead to fluctuations in the New Taiwan Dollar exchange rate. In contrast, other East Asian nations strive to curb inflation to maintain a long-term positive real interest rate environment. Lastly, in accordance with the currently popular 'de-dollarization' hedging strategy, this study examines three alternative options: the first involves replacing the dollar with gold. However, this is unsuitable for current international trade interactions, and individual countries possess limited gold reserves. The second option substitutes other internationally circulated currencies for the dollar, but data confirms that regardless of whether it's the Pound, Euro, or Yen, they remain subject to relevant currency power influences. Therefore, there is no significant advantage or benefit in replacing the dollar. The final approach suggests using the Renminbi or 'local currency trade settlement' to replace the dollar. Nonetheless, the biggest challenge lies in the fact that these currencies are not internationally circulated. Integrating central bank assets into foreign exchange reserves may complicate matters and make management difficult. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/90158 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU202303586 |
全文授權: | 同意授權(全球公開) |
顯示於系所單位: | 政治學系 |
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