權力轉移中崛起國與既存強權的戰與和

Abstract

在國際關係領域中，探討權力轉移時崛起國與既存強權間的戰與和的文獻繁多。但各學說之間卻長久缺乏有效的整合平台，這使我們無法確定不同理論在各種情境下的適用性。同時，對於國內政治菁英在權力轉移過程中的角色，研究仍然不足。基於此，本文提出一套以政治菁英偏好為核心的策略框架，並將政治菁英的言行視作觀察機制運作的主要指標。 本論文為一篇理論檢驗型論文。本文的目的並非提出新的自變項以挑戰現有的理論，而是使用政治菁英政策偏好組合作為中介變項，來檢驗現行學說的適用性。通過這一理論框架，我們選取了十九世紀中葉至二十世紀前期美英和平權力轉移，以及二十世紀前半至二十世紀中葉，日本作為挑戰者對美國發動的太平洋戰爭兩個案例。透過在這些案例中檢驗不同的理論，我們不僅可以理解現有文獻的優劣，還能指出學界未來的研究方向。此外，這一框架也可幫助我們判斷在不同的權力轉移情境中，應首選哪些理論工具來解釋和預測崛起國與既有強國之間的策略互動。

In the realm of international relations, extensive literature exists that explores the interactions between rising powers and existing leading powers during power transitions. However, there has been a persistent challenge in effectively amalgamating these diverse theories, making it difficult to determine their applicability across various scenarios. Moreover, the role of domestic political elites during these power transitions has often been overlooked. In response, this thesis presents a strategic framework anchored on the preferences of political elites. Their statements and actions are positioned as essential indicators of the functioning mechanisms within these transitions. This study stands as a theoretical examination. Instead of introducing new independent variables to contest prevailing theories, it utilizes the policy preferences of political elites as a mediating variable to assess the relevance of existing doctrines. Employing this framework, two case studies are scrutinized: the peaceful power transition between the US and the UK from the mid-19th century to the early 20th century, and the Pacific War initiated by Japan, a rising power, against the US, an existing leading power, spanning from the first half to the mid-20th century. By examining various theories within these case studies, we not only identify the strengths and limitations of current literature but also pinpoint potential research directions in the field. Importantly, this framework provides guidance on which theoretical tools should be prioritized when interpreting and forecasting the strategic dynamics between rising powers and existing leading powers in different power transition contexts.