臺灣與菲律賓對外策略比較（2008-2022）

Abstract

自從歐巴馬執政以來，美國與中國大陸之間的互動逐漸由競合轉變為對抗，在這樣的情形下，美國積極拉攏位於東亞的盟國與夥伴以強化抗中的勢力，而中國大陸則採取相應的策略以作為制衡。然而在美中競爭轉趨激烈的背景下，我們卻發現同樣位處於美國「第一島鏈」戰略上的臺灣與菲律賓，其過往兩任政府的對外策略在政權輪替後出現了反向的變動，臺灣從馬英九政府到蔡英文政府是從避險轉變為抗衡，而菲律賓從艾奎諾三世政府到杜特蒂政府則是從抗衡轉變為避險。 對於這樣的差異，本文嘗試以新古典現實主義作為理論框架，透過探討臺灣與菲律賓所面對的國際因素與國內因素，分析其對外策略的成因，並且進一步進行比較。本文研究發現，國內因素是影響臺灣與菲律賓前後兩任政府對外策略出現反向變動的關鍵原因，其中領導人的認知與偏好具有最為決定性的影響，而隨著選舉的迫近，民意也會對領導人形成誘因與壓力，進而讓領導人基於選舉策略的考量調整其對外策略。

Since Obama's presidency, the interaction between the United States and mainland China has gradually shifted from “competition and cooperation” to “confrontation”. In this context, the United States has actively sought to strengthen its anti-China influence by rallying allies and partners in East Asia, while mainland China has adopted corresponding strategies to counterbalance it. However, amidst the escalating competition between the United States and China, we have observed a reversal of foreign policy approaches in Taiwan and the Philippines, both of which are located in the United States' "First Island Chain" strategy. Taiwan transitioned from a risk-averse stance under the Ma Ying-jeou administration to a more confrontational approach under the Tsai Ing-wen administration. On the other hand, the Philippines shifted from a confrontational stance under the Aquino III administration to a more risk-averse position under the Duterte administration. In light of these differences, this article attempts to use neoclassical realism as a theoretical framework to analyze the causes of Taiwan and the Philippines' foreign policy by examining the international and domestic factors they faced. Furthermore, a comparative analysis is conducted. This study reveals that domestic factors are the key drivers behind the reverse shifts in foreign policy of the successive governments in Taiwan and the Philippines. Among these factors, leaders' perceptions and preferences exert the most decisive influence. As elections approach, public opinion also forms incentives and pressures for leaders. Consequently, leaders adjust their foreign policies based on considerations of their electoral strategy.