日本的自由開放印太－以2012到2022年為主

Abstract

中國自2010年成為東亞支配強權，霸權穩定的全球及區域結構面臨動搖，日本退居東亞第二強權，面對全球及東亞權力移轉，如何維繫既有區域秩序的穩定攸關日本國家安全利益。在權力移轉下為維繫既有秩序並嚇阻具潛力的挑戰強權，日本與全球支配強權美國的結盟關係更趨於穩固。本研究在Singer的國際體系及國家兩分析層次架構下，依據Tammen及Kugler「全球層級體系」中含括多個「區域層級體系」的新權力轉移理論觀點，探究2012到2022年期間，日本安倍晉三、菅義偉及岸田文雄內閣為維繫全球及區域體系層次的穩定，以美日同盟為主軸推動「自由開放印度太平洋」維繫日本在體系的相對優勢及主導地位，推展跨區域合作形成「印太區域」，進而連結日本與美國盟友、大洋洲、南亞、東南亞、歐洲等區域的安全合作，確保日本在東亞及印太區域的防衛及經濟安全。

本研究結論顯示，倘日本核武及防衛能力突破「專守防衛」囿限，將更能主導東亞區域及全球層級體系安全事務，加上自由開放印太連結多區域安全合作，更能牽制全球權力的轉移。美日同盟、日澳準同盟以及未來日英簽署《互惠准入協定》（RAA）提升為日英準同盟後，美、日、英、澳形成可望形成互為三邊甚至四邊的軍事同盟，更具潛力成為比四方安全對話（QUAD）更為具體之印太區域多極合作霸權穩定結構。

As China has grown to be the dominant power in East Asia since 2010, global and East Asian hegemonic structures inevitably confront power transitions, in the face of which Japan is inclined to strengthen its alliance with the world's dominant power, the United States, to maintain the status quo and deter China as a rising power. Through Tammen and Kugler's "global hierarchy" incorporating multiple "regional hierarchies," this thesis aims to explore Japan's "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" (FOIP) during the cabinets of ABE Shinzo, SUGA Yoshihide, KISHIDA Fumio, respectively, from 2012 to 2022. In pursuit of the stability of the global and regional hierarchies, Japan tends to enhance the US-Japan alliance to maximize its comparative advantage and dominance in the hierarchies through promoting "Indo-Pacific" cooperation consisting of Oceanian, South Asian, Southeast Asian, European, and other regional dominant powers, to safeguard Japan's defense and economic security in the East Asian and Indo-Pacific regions.

The thesis concludes that if policies of passive defense would no longer confine Japan's employment of nuclear weapons and defense capabilities, Japan would be much more empowered to lead East Asian and global security affairs. Compared with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), if the U.S.-Japan alliance, the Japan-Australia quasi-alliance, and the Japan-UK signing of the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) are all present in the foreseeable future, it would be more promising for the U.S., Japan, the U.K., and Australia to forge a specific form of alliance that is expected to be trilateral or even quadrilateral, becoming a relatively stable hegemonic hierarchy of multi-polar cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region.