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完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.advisor | 陳郁蕙 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.advisor | Yu-Hui Chen | en |
dc.contributor.author | 黃海潮 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author | Hai-Chao Huang | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-09-07T16:29:27Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2023-11-09 | - |
dc.date.copyright | 2023-09-11 | - |
dc.date.issued | 2023 | - |
dc.date.submitted | 2023-08-12 | - |
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dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/89314 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 本研究分析中華職業棒球大聯盟 32 年例行賽中 296 場之投球資料,共計 138 位投手之 55,985 顆投球,透過衡量球速、球種、投打站位、進壘位置以及好壞球數等變數對「期望失壘」進行估計。本文使用線性迴歸模型、決策樹迴歸模型、隨機森林迴歸模型作為基礎,對「期望失壘」進行估計,並比較不同模型間之優劣、變數間的重要程度等,而隨機森林迴歸模型對期望失壘進的預測效果最佳。
研究發現,在投手球數落入三壞球時,會對期望失壘產生顯著影響,其次為進壘位置與球速。因此,本研究歸納「控球」為影響投手表現的最重要因素。若以「期望失壘」衡量投球表現,會發現外籍球員普遍在此指標有較好表現,符合傳統上球隊找尋洋投之目的。此外,本研究也進一步將「期望失壘」與既有之投手指標進行對照與比較。發現由於「期望失壘」的計算包含每一顆投球的過程與結果,因此能與其他指標達成互補的效果。 若將「期望失壘」與本國籍投手薪資做比較,整體而言,本研究所估計的「期望失壘」越低的投手該年度月薪越高,但部分表現良好之新人投手之薪資明顯低於均薪,這表示中華職棒之隊伍仍依照年資與過去績效作為談薪依據,故本文建議球團可以積極培養新人,享受所謂「新秀紅利」。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | This research analyzed 296 regular games of Chinese Professional Baseball League's 32th season to build a model of "expected-base-loss" by pitch speed, pitch types, pitching location, pitcher(batter) handedness and the current count. In this research, we compared the prediction performance and variable importance between the linear regression model, the decision tree regression model, and the random forest regression model. Eventually, we decided to use a random forest regression model to predict the "expected-base-loss".
We discovered there will be a significant impact on the "expected-base-loss" when a pitcher falls into the situation of three-balls count.On the other hand, pitching location and pitch speed are significant as well, so a pitcher should avoid pitching a "ball". Therefore, "pitching command" is the most important factor that influences the pitching performance. By the result of pitchers' "expected-base-loss", foreign players had better performance on this index, and it satisfied the purpose why a team wants to import foreign players. Also, we compare the "expected-base-loss" with other existing pitching indices, and the "expected-base-loss" index can complement other indices because it recorded all the pitching factors of each pitch. In this research, we analyzed the relationship between "expected-base-loss" and the salary of local pitchers. We find they exist a negative relationship but we also find that young pitchers are underpaid according to their performance. We suggest those teams in CPBL should cultivate new bloods in order to get benefit form the "rookie bonus". | en |
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dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2023-09-07T16:29:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 口試委員審定書 i
致謝 ii 摘要 iv Abstract v 目錄 vii 圖目錄 x 表目錄 xi 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究動機 1 1.2 研究目的 2 1.3 研究架構 3 1.4 論文架構 4 第二章 文獻回顧 5 2.1 職業運動與棒球數據分析 5 2.2 投打對決相關變數之研究 6 2.2.1 球速與球種對投手表現的影響 6 2.2.2 進壘點與站位相關研究 7 2.2.3 好壞球數相關研究 7 2.3 對整體投球表現相關數據之研究 8 2.4 棒球員表現與薪資的關聯性 9 2.5 小結 10 第三章 研究方法 11 3.1 對失壘數目的估計 11 3.2 迴歸模型設計 13 3.2.1 建立虛擬變數 14 3.2.2 線性迴歸模型 - 普通最小平方法 (Ordinary Least Squares) 14 3.2.3 迴歸樹 16 3.2.3.1 迴歸樹的修剪 18 3.2.4 隨機森林演算法 19 3.2.5 模型評估 20 3.2.6 交叉驗證 20 3.3 衡量投手能力之既有指標 21 3.3.1 防禦率ERA與標準化防禦率ERA+ 21 3.3.2 投手獨立防禦率FIP 22 3.3.3 投手每局被上壘率WHIP 22 3.4 小結 23 第四章 數據分析 24 4.1 資料描述與資料前處理 24 4.2 敘述統計 25 4.2.1 球速與球種 25 4.2.2 進壘位置 27 4.2.3 投打對決位置 29 4.2.4 好壞球數(Count) 30 4.2.5 失壘數的計算 31 4.3 類別變數的one-hot encoding 32 4.4 研究結果 34 4.4.1 線性迴歸模型分析 34 4.4.2 迴歸樹與隨機森林迴歸 37 4.4.3 模型表現之比較 38 4.5 期望失壘 E(T_CD) 與 ERA、ERA+、FIP、WHIP 等指標之比較 39 4.5.1 期望失壘 E(T_CD) 與防禦率ERA和ERA+的比較 41 4.5.2 期望失壘 E(T_CD) 與投手獨立防禦率FIP的比較 43 4.5.3 期望失壘 E(T_CD) 與投每局被上壘率 WHIP 的比較 44 4.6 中華職棒投手進入下半場之投球表現 45 4.7 期望失壘與球員薪資之關聯性 46 第五章 結論與建議 48 5.1 研究結論 48 5.2 研究貢獻 49 5.2.1 提供更細緻的分析指標 49 5.2.2 提供衡量薪資的新指標 49 5.3 研究限制與未來研究方向 50 5.3.1 研究限制 50 5.3.2 未來研究方向 50 參考文獻 51 附錄 A — 決策樹分枝結果圖 60 | - |
dc.language.iso | zh_TW | - |
dc.title | 應用機器學習方法分析中華職棒投手失壘表現 | zh_TW |
dc.title | Apply machine learning methods to analyze pitchers’ lose-base in CPBL | en |
dc.type | Thesis | - |
dc.date.schoolyear | 111-2 | - |
dc.description.degree | 碩士 | - |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 王瓊霞;詹滿色 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | Chiung-Hsia Wang;Man-Ser Jan | en |
dc.subject.keyword | 投手表現,棒球,中華職棒,運動經濟學, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | pitcher's performance,baseball,CPBL,sports economics, | en |
dc.relation.page | 60 | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU202303393 | - |
dc.rights.note | 未授權 | - |
dc.date.accepted | 2023-08-12 | - |
dc.contributor.author-college | 共同教育中心 | - |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 統計碩士學位學程 | - |
顯示於系所單位: | 統計碩士學位學程 |
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ntu-111-2.pdf 目前未授權公開取用 | 13.24 MB | Adobe PDF |
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