利用民間租屋資料與行政資料估計臺灣租屋市場逃漏稅程度

Abstract

本文使用2019年民間租屋資料串連財政部去識別化的財稅資料，估計全臺灣個人房東租賃所得之逃漏稅比率與金額。研究結果顯示，在成功與行政資料串連的樣本中(約40\%-50\%的樣本)，逃漏稅比率達94.4至97.3\%，逃漏稅額為4.22至4.37億元，即便寬鬆認定房東繳稅事實，逃稅比率仍為82.6至84.8\%。此估計結果於不同樣本以及不同估計方式中皆保持穩健，顯示臺灣房屋出租市場存在極高比率逃漏稅情形。此外，藉由關聯性分析，本文發現房屋月租金與逃稅行為呈現顯著正相關，房東之非流動資產淨值與逃稅行為則呈現顯著負相關。最後，本研究利用因果森林方法估計租金逃漏平均來說會使得所得稅率顯著下降0.314百分點，且該效果對持有房產較多之房東更為明顯。

This article utilizes 2019 private rental housing data linked with fiscal data from the Ministry of Finance to estimate the tax evasion rate and amount of rental income for individual landlords in Taiwan. The research findings indicate that, in the sample of successfully linked administrative data (around 40\%-50\% of sample), the tax evasion rate ranges from 94.4\% to 97.3\%, with a total evasion amount of 4.22 to 4.37 billion NT dollars. Even with a lenient assumption regarding landlords' tax payment, the tax evasion rate remains at 82.6\% to 84.8\%. These estimation results hold robust across different samples and estimation methods, indicating a significantly high level of tax evasion in Taiwan's rental housing market. Furthermore, through correlation analysis, this study discovers a significant positive relationship between monthly rental income and tax evasion. There is also a significant negative correlation between the non-current asset net worth of landlords and tax evasion. Lastly, using the causal forest method, this study estimates that, on average, the evasion of rental income tax would lead to a significant decrease of 0.314 percentage points in the income tax rate, with a more pronounced effect observed among landlords who own more properties.