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完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
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dc.contributor.advisor | 荷世平 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.advisor | Shih-Ping Ho | en |
dc.contributor.author | 陳俊瑋 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author | Chun-Wei Chen | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-08-15T16:33:16Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2023-11-09 | - |
dc.date.copyright | 2023-08-15 | - |
dc.date.issued | 2023 | - |
dc.date.submitted | 2023-07-20 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | 1. 荷世平、許耀文、徐瑋澤,促參案財務評估項目及指標之研訂
2. 林貴貞、唐櫻芬、蔡其諭、卜怡君、黃志華、張睿棠(2009),民間參與公共建設計畫財務試算作業手冊 3. Arturo Cifuentes (2016.10),The Discounted Cash Flow(DCF) Method Applied to Valuation: Too Many Uncomfortable Truths 4. J.F. Weston and T.E. Copeland(1992),Managerial Finance, 9th edition(Fort Worth: The Dryden Press) 5. Tom Copeland, Tim Koller and Jack Murrin(1994),Valuation:Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies, 2nd edition 6. Eugene F Fama(1996),Discounting Under Uncertainty 7. Amihud, Y.,B. Christensen and H Mendelson(1992),Further Evidence on the Risk-Return Relationship,Working Paper,New York University 8. Bernstein, P.(1992),Capital Ideas,The Free Press,New York 9. Chan, L.K. and J. Lakonsihok(1993),Are the reports of Beta’s death premature?,Journal of Portfolio Management, v19, 51-62. 10. Lintner, J.(1965), The Valuation of Risk Assets and the Selection of Risky Investments in Stock Portfolios and Capital Budgets, Review of Economics and Statistics, v47, 13-37. 11. Markowitz, Harry M.(1991), Foundations Of Portfolio Theory, Journal of Finance ,v46(2), 469-478. 12. Seyhun, H.N.(1986) ,Insiders’ Profits, Costs of Trading and Market Efficiency, Journal of Financial Economics, v16, pp 189-212. 13. Beaver, W. H., P. Kettler and M. Scholes(1970), The Association Between Market Determined And Accounting Determined Risk Measures, The Accounting Review,v45(4), 654-682. 14. Damodaran, A (2001), The Dark Side of Valuation, Prentice Hall. 15. Rosenberg, B. and J. Guy. (1976), Beta And Investment Fundamentals - II, Financial Analyst Journal, v32(4), 62-70. 16. Rosenberg, B. and J. Guy.(1995), Prediction Of Beta From Investment Fundamentals,Financial Analyst Journal, v51(1), 101-112. 17. Silber, W.L.,(1991), Discounts on Restricted Stock: The Impact of Illiquidity on Stock Prices, Financial Analysts Journal, 60-64. | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/88494 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 現行PPP專案民間方投資可行性評估,主要方式為建置財務模型進行定量分析,其評估方法多使用依據傳統資本預算理論訂定之財務指標如淨現值,惟該指標將受折現率選用之高低而有不同評估結果,且用於決定折現率之WACC公式本身,亦存有資本結構比例假設及Ke難以公允訂定等問題,本研究將梳理傳統資本運算理論,並搭配焚化爐、再生水及路燈等基礎建設案例進行實證分析,分析資本結構假設變化以及興建期折現率擇定對於專案評估的影響,並歸納整理前述案例中投資者關心之議題(既在意的風險),彙整以PPP專案風險特性訂定之Ke區間,以提出評估方法論之修正。
以採用動態WACC,興建期折現率採用物價調整率及以PPP專案風險特性訂定Ke之修正評估方法論進行實證分析之結果顯示修正後的評估方法論可降低樂觀偏誤。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | The current feasibility assessment of private sector investment in PPP projects mainly relies on building financial models for quantitative analysis. The evaluation methods often utilize traditional capital budgeting theory to establish financial indicators such as Net Present Value (NPV). However, the NPV is sensitive to the selection of the discount rate, leading to varying evaluation results. Moreover, the determination of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) formula itself faces challenges due to assumptions about capital structure proportions and difficulties in setting a fair Ke (required rate of return).
In this study, we will review the traditional capital budgeting theory and conduct empirical analyses with case studies on infrastructure projects such as incinerators, recycled water facilities, and street lighting. We will examine the impact of changes in capital structure assumptions and the selection of the discount rate during the construction period on project evaluations. Additionally, we will identify the issues that investors are concerned about (i.e., relevant risks) and consolidate the Ke range based on the characteristics of PPP project risks, proposing a modified evaluation methodology. The proposed approach will adopt dynamic WACC and use the inflation rate as the discount rate during the construction period, while considering the revised Ke range based on PPP project risk characteristics. The results of the empirical analysis demonstrate that the modified evaluation methodology can reduce optimistic biases in the assessments. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Submitted by admin ntu (admin@lib.ntu.edu.tw) on 2023-08-15T16:33:16Z No. of bitstreams: 0 | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2023-08-15T16:33:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 第一章 緒論 1
第一節、研究動機 1 第二節、研究目的 2 第三節、研究流程 3 第二章 文獻探討 5 第一節、風險 5 壹 定義風險 6 貳 風險組成 6 參 市場風險衡量 7 第二節、風險溢酬 9 壹 歷史風險溢酬 9 貳 歷史風險溢酬使用限制 11 參 歷史風險溢酬修正 12 第三節、價值評估 13 壹 評價作業流程 13 貳 評價方法 14 參 新創公司及非公開發行公司評價方法 16 第四節、現金流量折現法 20 第三章 研究設計 21 第一節、研究架構 21 第二節、財務模型之建構 22 第三節、案例基本資料 22 第四章 PPP專案財務評估方法論修正 25 第一節、靜態與動態WACC代表之意涵 25 第二節、興建期折現率代表之意涵 26 第三節、以PPP專案特性決定Ke 26 第五章 實證分析 28 第一節、採用動態WACC作為各期現金流量折現率 28 第二節、以物價調整率作為興建期折現率 31 第三節、以同業公司資料試算PPP專案Ke 32 壹 PPP專案營運模式 32 貳 PPP專案Ke試算 33 第四節、小結 35 第六章 結論與建議 38 第一節、結論 38 第二節、建議 39 參考文獻 40 | - |
dc.language.iso | zh_TW | - |
dc.title | PPP專案財務評估之方法論修正與實證分析 | zh_TW |
dc.title | PPP project evaluation methodology revision and empirical analysis | en |
dc.type | Thesis | - |
dc.date.schoolyear | 111-2 | - |
dc.description.degree | 碩士 | - |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 王全三;許耀文 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | Chuan-San Wang;Yaowen Hsu | en |
dc.subject.keyword | PPP專案,財務評估,價值評估,折現率, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | PPP Project,Financial evaluation,Valuation,Discount rate, | en |
dc.relation.page | 41 | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU202301799 | - |
dc.rights.note | 同意授權(全球公開) | - |
dc.date.accepted | 2023-07-21 | - |
dc.contributor.author-college | 工學院 | - |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 土木工程學系 | - |
顯示於系所單位: | 土木工程學系 |
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