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標題: | 國際資金急煞車、TARGET結清系統,與希臘債務危機 Sudden Stops, TARGET System, and Greek Debt Crisis |
作者: | 李嘉容 Chia-Jung Lee |
指導教授: | 蔡宜展 Yi-chan Tsai |
關鍵字: | TARGET系統,TARGET餘額,希臘債務危機,歐洲主權債務危機,國際資金急煞車, TARGET system,TARGET balance,Greek debt crisis,European debt crisis,sudden stops, |
出版年 : | 2023 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 本文嘗試藉由一個總體模型來了解TARGET系統在歐洲債務危機時期對希臘經濟的影響。為此本文先參考Mendoza (2010) 以及Fagan and McNelis (2020) 兩者的模型並加以修改,使得模型更能貼近本文所欲探討的問題。並使用希臘的資料來校準模型中需要的參數,最後再利用這些參數校準的結果以及模型來進行包含衝擊反應函數與反事實模擬的實證分析,藉此來觀察TARGET系統對希臘經濟的影響為何。而本文的反事實模擬結果則表明,若不存在來自TARGET系統的資金挹注,希臘的GDP、消費與投資都會較實際情況更差且更加波動。特別是在2010年至2012年間若沒有TARGET系統,希臘的GDP與消費將會較實際情況大幅下跌。因此我們發現在本文的模型架構下,如果沒有TARGET系統,希臘的經濟將會陷入比實際情形更嚴重的衰退中,而此發現也清楚地說明了TARGET系統的存在對希臘的經濟而言是相當重要的。另外為了使讀者對於TARGET系統相關背景的認識更加清晰,本文也在文中介紹了TARGET系統、國際資金急煞車以及歐洲債務危機等相關背景。 This research aims to understand the impact of the Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross Settlement Express Transfer System (TARGET) on the Greece economy during the European debt crisis using a macroeconomic model. To better tackle the problem at hand, it modifies models from Mendoza (2010) and Fagan and McNelis (2020). To calibrate the model via data from Greece, we conduct an empirical analysis by using impulse response functions and counterfactual simulations to observe the impact of TARGET on its economy. The counterfactual simulation results show that without funding injections from TARGET, Greece's GDP, consumption, and investment would have been worse and more volatile. In particular, without TARGET from 2010 to 2012, Greece's GDP and consumption would have fallen significantly. Therefore, under the model framework herein, findings present that without TARGET, the Greece economy would have experienced a more severe recession, highlighting the importance of TARGET for its economy. To provide readers with a clearer understanding of the background of the TARGET system, the paper also introduces the TARGET system, the sudden Stop of international funding of TARGET, and the European debt crisis in greater detail. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/88410 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU202302174 |
全文授權: | 未授權 |
顯示於系所單位: | 經濟學系 |
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ntu-111-2.pdf 目前未授權公開取用 | 2.48 MB | Adobe PDF |
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