以 DSGE 模型探討臺灣總體審慎與貨幣政策對房屋市場的監理

Abstract

我國中央銀行負有穩定經濟、 金融市場之責任， 不僅需維持通貨膨脹、 總體產 出、外匯等於一定水準，對臺灣人民相當重要的房屋不動產市場亦是受監理之標 的。與此同時，有鑑於 2008 年金融風暴，各國紛紛採用總體審慎政策維持金融穩 定。本文主要探討總體審慎與貨幣政策在臺灣的最佳組合，尤其是房屋價格該由 何種手段監理，以最小化經濟波動並最大化社會福利增加，並探討經濟體中不同 角色之福利權衡。

本文以 Tsai et al. [2022] 及 Rubio and Carrasco-Gallego [2014] 為基礎，建立小型 開放動態隨機一般均衡模型，並在模型中加入總體審慎部門以及福利分析，用以 探討經濟穩定與福利的問題。本文的發現顯示，若以社會福利極大化為目標，監 理房屋市場波動的責任應由貨幣政策承擔。然而，以總體審慎監理房價及限制信 用擴張將是次佳政策。

The primary responsibility of the central bank in Taiwan is to stabilize the economy and financial markets. This entails maintaining inflation, overall output, and foreign exchange at a certain level. Additionally, the central bank also supervises the housing and real estate market, which holds significant importance for the people of Taiwan. In light of the global financial crisis in 2008, countries have implemented comprehensive prudential policies to ensure financial stability. This paper focuses on the optimal combination of macroprudential and monetary policies in Taiwan, particularly in terms of supervising house prices. The objective is to minimize economic fluctuations and maximize increases in social welfare. The welfare trade-offs of different roles within the economy are also explored.

To address these issues, this paper establishes a small open dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model based on the research conducted by Tsai et al. [2022] and Rubio and Carrasco-Gallego [2014]. The model incorporates macroprudential and welfare analysis to examine economic stability and welfare.

The findings of the study indicate that if the aim is to maximize social welfare, the responsibility for monitoring housing market volatility should lie with monetary policy. However, macroprudential monitoring of housing prices and the limitation of credit expansion represent a viable second-best policy option.