不同發展程度經濟體三難困境之比較研究

Abstract

三難困境為國際金融之重要議題，意指國家無法同時追求貨幣政策獨立、匯率穩定、金融開放，只能從中做出部分的取捨。為了補足與掌握長時間各國的政策目標變化，本文採用1960年至2020年計61年，包含180個樣本國家的三難指標資料，針對不同發展程度與區域國家進行統計與實證分析。發現長期下三難困境仍然構成限制，又以新興市場國家受到三難困境的約束力較強，依約束程度由強至弱為新興市場國家、開發中國家、已開發國家，其中市場風險會提升三難困境的約束力。另外，觀察長期下外匯存底對三難困境的影響，本文以各國平均值的橫斷面資料，使用線性與分量迴歸模型，結果顯示外匯存底大致能增加指標總和但並不顯著，而Probit模型則是在已開發國家，能獲得顯著且正向的影響，此與統計分析相符。

The trilemma in international finance means that a country cannot simultaneously peg an exchange rate, maintain an independent monetary policy, and permit free cross-border financial flows. Usually, only two of the three are feasible. This study is to investigate the changes in these three policy goals with the 61-year trilemma indexes dated from 1960 to 2020, totaled 180 various economies. The empirical results show that the trilemma still exists in the long run, and emerging market countries are particularly more bounded by the trilemma. According to the degree of binding, emerging market countries, developing countries, and developed countries ranked from strong to weak. Market risks will increase the binding of the trilemma. In addition, we analyzed whether the international reserves holding can relax the trilemma in the long run using the cross-sectional data of the average value of each country. The estimation results show weak robustness applying ordinary least squares method and quantile regression, whereas the estimated coefficient of the international reserves holding is positive and statistically significant in the developed countries with Probit model, which is consistent with the statistical analysis.