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標題: | 習近平新時代解決台灣問題的總體方略之研究 A Study on Xi Jinping’s Overall Policy Framework for Resolving the Taiwan Question in the New Era |
作者: | 葉宗林 Zong-Lin Yeh |
指導教授: | 周繼祥 Jih-Shine Chou |
關鍵字: | 習近平,台灣問題,總體方略,統戰理論,兩岸關係, Xi Jinping,Taiwan issue,Overall Policy Framework for Resolving the Taiwan Issue in the New Era,united front,Taiwan–China relations, |
出版年 : | 2023 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 「台灣問題」作為中共的三大歷史任務之一,是中共歷任領導人都無可避免並且必須正視的議題,尤其是在習近平自十八大接任中共總書記之後,又更為積極針對台灣採取各種統戰措施,以為兩岸統一的終極目標創造有利條件。在第十九屆六中全會中,中共首度提出「新時代解決台灣問題的總體方略」(以下簡稱「總體方略」)作為對台政策的戰略部署,就被視為是習近平更進一步針對解決「台灣問題」所設計的頂層設計。因此,「總體方略」的核心內涵為何以及中共如何實踐「總體方略」,並且將對兩岸關係產生何種變化,就顯得重要與值得關注。
本研究認為,「總體方略」的形成背景與中共所提出「中國式現代化」的理論架構有關,解決「台灣問題」就是實現「中國式現代化」目標中「中華民族偉大復興」的重要一環。另外,由於近年來台灣出現政黨輪替以及美國逐漸積極介入兩岸關係,致使原先美中台三角關係的均勢有所轉變,因此在此前提下所導致的兩岸協商制度的中斷以及美中關係的惡化,也是中共提出「總體方略」以期能在未來能主導兩岸關係的重要因素。此外,中共在香港「一國兩制」實踐上所遭遇的問題,則是為中共在統戰的策略上提供了重要的參考依據,也同樣是「總體方略」形成的因素之一。 本研究透過中共官媒以及二十大輔導讀本中有關「總體方略」的文章進行分析,認為「總體方略」的核心內涵以及實踐要求,具有歷史制度主義中「路徑依賴」的特性,即「總體方略」是習近平在中共原有的兩岸統一理論以及對台政策基礎上再作的創新理論,例如「九二共識」、「和平發展」以及「一國兩制」等過去既有的對台理論或者政策,都是「總體方略」的重要組成。另一方面,中共在「總體方略」中提及的包括「融合發展」以及「鬥爭精神」等習近平創新或強調的理論,則突顯出習近平在新時代的對台政策上開始抱持著有別以往的新思維。 本研究認為,「總體方略」的提出有助於維護習近平統治的合法性,特別是習近平透過在涉台機構中的人事調整,除了能更有效率的使對台政策由上而下地被貫徹施行,也具有讓習近平能完全掌握涉台機構權力的效果。另外,從「總體方略」的內涵中,也能看出中共未來在對台政策上仍然採用「軟硬兩手」的策略,但是相較於過去,未來中共硬的措施如對台軍演、軟的措施如惠台措施等,都將更為積極地被執行。只是,囿於如2024年台灣以及美國將進行總統選舉,以及烏俄戰爭後國際社會開始擔憂台海情勢等因素,也都將牽制中共欲強勢主導兩岸關係的企圖。 The Taiwan issue, which is one of the three historical missions for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), is an issue all leaders of China cannot avoid and must face squarely. After Xi Jinping succeeded as the General Secretary of the CCP in the 18th National Congress of the CCP, he has actively carried out various “united front” measures against Taiwan to create a favorable condition for Cross-Strait unification. In the Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee, the CCP proposed the Overall Policy Framework for Resolving the Taiwan Issue in the New Era (hereafter the Overall Policy Framework) as a strategic policy deployment aimed at Taiwan. The Overall Policy Framework is regarded as a top-level strategy designed by Xi to further accelerate the solution of the Taiwan issue. Therefore, further investigation must be made on the core connotation of the Overall Policy Framework, how the CCP executes the Overall Policy Framework, and how the Overall Policy Framework affects Taiwan–China relations. The thesis argues that the background of the Overall Policy Framework is related to the theoretical framework of “Chinese modernization” proposed by the CCP, and solving the Taiwan issue is critical to fulfilling the “Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation,” which is one of the goals of Chinese modernization. Recent transitions of power in Taiwan and the United States’ active intervention in Cross-Straits relations have led to changes in the balance of power between the United States, China, and Taiwan. This has led to the interruption of the negotiation between Taiwan and China and the deterioration of US–China relations, and a factor behind the CCP’s proposal of the Overall Policy Framework to dominate Taiwan–China relations. Furthermore, the problems the CCP encountered in enforcing the “One Country, Two System” policies in Hong Kong have provided it with a crucial reference to refine its united front strategies, leading to the formation of the Overall Policy Framework. The thesis analyzed the articles related to the Overall Policy Framework from the CCP official media and the Guide on the 20th National Congress of the CCP, revealing that path dependence, a concept from historical institutionalism, constitutes the core connotation and practical demands of the Overall Policy Framework. In other words, the Overall Policy Framework is an innovative theory created by Xi on the basis of CCP’s existing theory of cross-strait unification and policies aimed at Taiwan. The 1992 Consensus, Peaceful Development, and One Country, Two System policies all constitute the Overall Policy Framework. Moreover, the Overall Policy Framework mentions “integrated development” and “fighting spirit,” which are concepts innovated or emphasized by Xi, highlighting Xi’s new way of thinking on the CCP’s policies on Taiwan for the new era. The thesis contend that Xi’s proposal of the Overall Policy Framework is conducive to maintaining the legitimacy of his leadership. Specifically, Xi made personnel changes in Taiwan-related institutions to not only ensure more efficient implementation of his policies for Taiwan in a top–down fashion, but to also exert full control over these institutions. According to the Overall Policy Framework, the CCP will not only continue to adopt the carrot-and-stick strategy on Taiwan, but also plans to further reinforce both “stick” measures such as military drills against Taiwan and “carrot” measures such as measures benefiting Taiwan. Nevertheless, the upcoming presidential elections in Taiwan and the United States in 2024, along with the international community’s growing concerns on cross-straits situations due to the Russo–Ukrainian War, will undermine the CCP’s attempt to dominate Taiwan–China relations. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/88055 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU202301515 |
全文授權: | 同意授權(限校園內公開) |
顯示於系所單位: | 國家發展研究所 |
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