前南斯拉夫經濟體在COVID-19疫情期間財務憂慮分析

Abstract

本研究旨在探討COVID-19疫情期間前南斯拉夫國家（前南斯拉夫）的財務憂慮之決定因素與程度。所研究的國家包括波斯尼亞與赫塞哥維納、克羅地亞、科索沃、北馬其頓和塞爾維亞，這些國家的發展水平相對較低，貧困程度較高，且失業率較發達國家高。在這個地區，許多人仍然面臨著難以存取和管理銀行帳戶、數位銀行和其他在疫情期間至關重要的現代金融服務的困境。為了確定各種社會人口統計特徵、金融包容性和金融韌性因素對財務憂慮的影響，本研究使用了世界銀行發表的2021年全球金融指標數據庫，並構建了數個有序邏輯迴歸模型來探討這些國家財務憂慮的決定因素。結果顯示，社會人口統計特徵、金融包容性和金融韌性對個體的財務憂慮程度有顯著影響。此外，與發達國家的比較顯示出這些因素的影響存在顯著差異，凸顯了考慮國家特定情境的重要性。根據研究結果，可以推斷COVID-19疫情對塑造這些因素和加劇財務憂慮起到了重要作用。因此，本文的研究結果有助於更好地理解在COVID-19疫情等不確定時期前南斯拉夫經濟體中的財務憂慮。本研究的結論凸顯了精心設計的政策對保護邊緣化的社會人口群體以及考慮疫情防控措施的意外後果的重要性。

This study examines determinants and levels of financial worry in former Yugoslav nations (Ex-Yugoslavia) during the COVID-19 pandemic. The nations included are Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, North Macedonia, and Serbia which are characterized by lower levels of development, more poverty and higher unemployment rates compared to developed economies around the world. Many individuals in this region still struggle with accessing and managing their bank accounts, digital banking and other modern financial services that were crucial during the pandemic. In order to determine the influence of various socio-demographic characteristics and factors of financial inclusion and resilience, the 2021 Global Findex Database, published by the World Bank, is used and several ordered logistic regression models are constructed. The results indicate that socio-demographic factors, financial inclusion and financial resilience, significantly influence the level of financial worry for an individual. Further, comparisons with developed economies showcase noteworthy differences in the impact of these factors illustrating the importance of considering country-specific contexts. It can also be inferred, from the findings, that the COVID-19 pandemic has played a significant role in shaping these factors and intensifying financial worry. Hence, the findings in this paper contribute to a better understanding of financial worry in former Yugoslav economies during uncertain periods such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The conclusions of this study shed light on the importance and need of carefully tailored policy making that protects marginalized socio-demographic groups and considers unintended consequences of pandemic prevention measures.