從技術典範看新能源車的發展

Abstract

縱觀車輛發展史，世界上第一臺新能源車的發明甚至早於目前常見的燃油汽車，但燃油汽車卻獨領風騷將近一個世紀，並野蠻生長直到能源短缺問題和環境污染問題紛至沓來，這才將目光轉移向新能源車。目前英、法、德等多國都將發展新能源車產業作爲戰略新興產業，並宣佈2030年禁售燃油車。新能源車產業的成長潛力也值得驚喜，卻少關注產業內部創新活動的個體經濟（個別企業）特徵，即通過技術典範視角，檢視近十年新能源車與重要零組件的生產技術、產品特性和產業結構的變化，以及其未來演變趨勢。 首先，本研究分析了新能源車產業發展的現實背景，並從新能源車發展史、與可持續發展關系、相關技術發展和消費者偏好等四個方面對相關文獻進行分析探討，總結現有研究的不足。同時對相關核心概念進行界定，詳細介紹了技術典範與技術軌跡相關理論、市場集中度與規模經濟理論、技術經濟評價理論，為下文研究奠定理論基礎。 其次，在文獻回顧和相關理論基礎之上，本文運用規範分析法和數字分析法探討了純電動車、插電式混合動力車和燃料電池車的相關技術發展，並對動力電池技術做詳細分析，認爲新能源車會趨向智能網聯化，且基礎設施建設會是關鍵；動力電池技術發展趨向為安全性高、能量密度大、成本低；整車技術向模塊化縱深發展。 再者，通過分析新能源車的市場需求結構可研判產業發展前景，並運用數據包絡分析法判斷新能源車產業的規模經濟性，銷售毛利率、營業費用率等相關績效指標研判市場集中度會上升。因此，本文認爲新能源車的市場結構趨向寡占型態，但同時會有許多小廠；部分零部件廠商呈現規模經濟效應。 最後，本文對新能源車和燃油汽車相關成本進行測算，得到2021年和2030年技術狀態下的全生命周期成本。此外，運用層次分析法和模糊評價法對純電動車、插電式混合動力車、燃料電池車和燃油汽車進行量化處理，得出綜合性能值。根據全生命周期成本和綜合性能值求出新能源車和燃油汽車的成本性能比。相較之下，短期來看，純電動車發展潛力更大；長期來看，燃料電池車發展潛力更大。

Throughout the history of vehicle development, the world first battery run vehicle, hereafter referred to as the new energy vehicle (NEV), was invented even earlier than the current common fuel cars, which led the way and grew rapidly for nearly a century until the energy shortage and pollution problems emerged. At present, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and many other countries are targeting the NEV industry as a strategic one, and will ban on the sale of fuel cars in 2030. The growth potential of the NEV industry is also surprising, yet less attention is paid to the micro-economic and firm-specific characteristics of a great number of innovations within the industry. This study will examine the changes in technology applied, product characteristics and market structure of the NEV industry and the same changes in certain NEV important components over the last decade, as well as their future evolution trends. First, this paper will survey the development background of NEV with relevant literature from four aspects: the history of NEV, the relationship with sustainability, changes in technology and consumer preferences, with a summary of existing studies. Meanwhile, the core concepts used in the study are defined, and theories related to technology paradigm and technology trajectory, market concentration, economies of scale, and tech-economic valuation theory are presented in detail for formulating an analytical framework for the study. Secondly, this paper will apply the normative and numerical analysis to explore the technology development of three major types of NEV: pure electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell ones, with a focus on the power cell technology. It is inferred that NEV will become intelligent network connected and therefore the infrastructure construction will play a role. Furthermore, the power cell technology development will be directed toward high safety, high energy density and low cost. And the assembling pattern of NEV tends to be modularized in depth. Moreover, the demand structure of NEV will affect the development prospects of the industry. The data envelope analysis is used to explore the economies of scale of the NEV industry. The analysis of performance indicators, such as gross sales margin, operating expense ratio, etc., also supports the rising trend of market concentration. Therefore, this paper argues that the market structure of NEV tends to oligopoly type with fringe firms and certain component manufacturing shows economies of scale. Finally, this paper calculates the life-span costs of NEV vs. fuel vehicles in 2021 and 2030 given the state of the art. In addition, the hierarchical analysis and fuzzy evaluation method are applied to measure the life-span and the comprehensive performance value of three types of NEV and fuel vehicle. In comparison, pure electric vehicles seem to have greater development potential in the short term, while fuel cell vehicles will gain a nitch in the longer term.