影響花椰菜與青花菜批發市場價格因素之研究

Abstract

無論時代如何變遷，農業仍是臺灣重要基礎產業之一，農產品價格的波動是農政單位或消費大眾最關心的議題，尤以蔬菜價格最受關注，使價格波動的原因很多，氣候雖為主要因素，但農產品品質的好壞、生長期的淡旺季、批發市場每日的買氣等亦會使價格產生波動，蔬菜價格一旦上揚，民生消費和生活首當其衝。 因此本研究利用消費地批發市場中具代表性的臺北農產公司第一及第二果菜批發市場，其大宗蔬菜品項之一的花椰菜及青花菜每日每筆交易資料作研究標的，並選擇交易量、品質、拍賣序號、到貨來源地區及交易方式等各項變數，利用相關性分析及多元線性迴歸分析探討前述原因是否會影響花椰菜及青花菜批發市場價格，結果顯示，花椰菜及青花菜交易量多寡對於自身批發市場價格有顯著影響；拍賣序號對花椰菜及青花菜批發市場拍賣價格有顯著影響，序號編排越前面，價格明顯較高，亦具有顯著影響；果菜品質(等級)對於花椰菜與青花菜皆具有顯著影響、青花菜到貨品名別及拍賣員執行拍賣作業的經驗等對花椰菜及青花菜批發市場價格有顯著影響。 透過本研究結果可以知道，花椰菜及青花菜批發市場價格與其本身交易量會相互影響，到貨量會受前一天行情價格而有所變化，而當日的價格也會受當日到貨量多寡影響，另外果菜品質好壞也是關鍵因素，因此如何能在適合的時節，調節產量，並藉由在出貨前做到去蕪存菁，按照手冊規範做好分級包裝，並符合消費地市場端的需求，使得價格穩定，這是生產端及相關單位要學習的課題。

Agriculture remains one of Taiwan's important industries through one the history. The fluctuation of agricultural product prices is the most concerned issue of government or the public, particularly the vegetable prices. There are many reasons for price fluctuations, including climate, the quality of agricultural products, the off-peak season, and the transaction environment in the wholesale market, when the price of vegetables rises, producer’s livelihood will bear the brunt. This study uses the daily transaction data of cauliflower and broccoli, from the fruits and vegetables wholesale markets owned by Taipei Agricultural Products Marketing Company, which are representative of the wholesale market of the country. Various variables such as transaction volume, quality, auction serial number, arrival source area and transaction method, are chosen for analysis. The results show that the trading volume of cauliflower and broccoli has a significant impact on the wholesale market price these two crops. The auction serial number has a significant impact on the auction price of cauliflower and broccoli wholesale market. The sequence number at the front, the higher the price. The quality grade of fruits and vegetables has a significant impact on both cauliflower and broccoli. And the arrival product name of broccoli and the auctioneer's experience in performing the operations have significant impact on their wholesale market prices. Based on the findings, we know that the wholesale market price of cauliflower and broccoli will affect each other with its own trading volume. The arrival volume will be affected by the previous day's price, while the price of the day will also be affected by the arrival volume of the day. The quality of fruits and vegetables is also a key factor. So do graded packaging according to the manual specifications adjusting output and stabilize the price, by planning the inventory before shipment, and meet the market demand, are critical and worthwhile for further research.