中國對拉丁美洲的外交政策選擇：路徑依賴或路徑創造

Abstract

中國在經濟軍事實力崛起後，積極拓展國際舞台與擴大影響力，對於當代國際秩序形成莫大壓力。而自21世紀以來，中國與拉美國家的經貿關係大幅推進，甚至與部分國家的貿易量超越美國；中國企業在拉美擴大投資力道的行動也備受矚目。政治方面，2014年「中國－拉共體論壇」成立，作為中國直接與拉美國家溝通對話的平台，「一帶一路」倡議也延伸至拉美區域。中國近年來在拉美區域的政經行動，引起各界廣泛的重視與討論，然而其背後動機為何，是否影響了美國在當地秩序的領導地位，目前學界仍尚無定論。 為回答上述問題，本論文從路徑依賴與創造途徑出發，提出三項假設：中國制定對拉美外交方針時係依循經濟理性邏輯而發生路徑依賴現象，抑或是中美競逐的意識增強出現路徑創造現象，以及北京在拉丁美洲的外交足跡對當地區域秩序造成何等影響。在探析中國總體外交戰略與經濟發展需求的演進，以及中美與拉美國家經貿互動的基礎上，分析2001年至2021年中國對拉丁美洲的經貿關係與外交政策選擇，並針對拉美區域經濟量體，選擇中國與巴西—拉美區域最大的經濟體—和中國與委內瑞拉—代表中小型經濟體—進行個案研究。 本文研究結果顯示，中國在巴西與委內瑞拉的外交政策大致符合路徑依賴途徑觀點，也就是中國對這兩國的外交行動係為了支持中國國家發展而持續擴增資源投入或提升雙邊關係往來，並未出現顯著的以外交影響力為目的政策與行動。而在對於拉美區域的國際秩序影響下，本論文亦從「中國－拉共體論壇」與「一帶一路」倡議檢視中國在拉美區域秩序中的行動邏輯，證據顯示其仍是以掌握經濟議題的話語權為主，中國在其他議題領域的倡議或行動仍離制度化或影響區域秩序本質還有相當大的空間。總體來看，中國在拉美區域仍未出現顯著改變區域原有秩序且非以經濟為主要目標的路徑創造政策。

China’s rising economic and military power manifests its proactive action in the international arena and becomes a tool to enhance its global influence. This undoubtedly exerts much pressure on the current international order. Since the 21st century, the economic relations between China and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) have come a long way. China has become several LAC countries’ most significant trade partner. Its large investments in the LAC region have also aroused global attention. Politically, the China-CELAC Forum, established in 2014, serves as a platform for the cooperation of both parties. China’s BRI Initiative has also invited the LAC countries to participate. China’s recent economic and political actions in the LAC have received extensive discussion and attention. What Beijing’s real intention towards this region is and how these actions influence the hegemony position of the U.S. remain unknown. In order to answer the above puzzles, this thesis follows the perspective on path dependence and creation and proposes three hypotheses. The first hypothesis is that China’s LAC foreign policy is driven by the logic of economic rationality, led by path dependence. The second is that path creation happens due to Sino-US competition. The last one focuses on whether Beijing’s diplomatic actions in LAC have unprecedented impacts on the regional order. Based on the examination of China’s general diplomatic strategy, the demands of national economic development, and the economic interactions between China, the U.S., and the LAC countries, this thesis analyzes the relations between China and LAC’s economic engagements and China’s diplomatic choices from 2001 to 2021. Specifically, according to the economic scales of LAC countries, Brazil and Venezuela are chosen to conduct case studies since they represent the large and small LAC countries, respectively. The research results show that China’s actions towards both Brazil and Venezuela match the perspective of path dependence. That is, the primary purpose of China’s growing investments or improving bilateral relations is to support its national development rather than enhance Beijing’s diplomatic influence. When it comes to the international order of the LAC region, the observation of China’s actions in the region, such as the China-CELAC Forum and the BRI Initiative suggests that China centers on developing more power in the economic and finance realms. China does not have the capability to institutionalize security-related or cultural initiatives, not to mention to create a new regional order. Overall, path creation aiming at changing the regional order has not occurred explicitly in China’s LAC foreign policy.