以機器稼動率為基礎的B2B報價策略

Abstract

在競爭激烈的市場環境中，我們希望中小機械加工廠經由詢價案後，能因接獲訂單使得工廠稼動率提升，製造費率下降，並在下期的詢價案獲得更高的得標機會形成一正向循環，因此如何建立模型描述此情況便為研究主題。我們依據探討期數的多寡分成單期與多期，並在多期時將期數區分為前期與後期，不論前後期對於標案皆有保守與積極兩種選擇，因此共有 4種策略組合。當只考慮單期標案的加價，未考慮得標後稼動率提升，製造費率下降對於後期標案的外溢效果時，數據顯示用外界加價分配的順序統計量最小值m_((1))參與投標，能獲得最多的利潤。在多期標案時，我們納入製造費率下降對於後期標案的效果。我們發現若涵括的期數較短時，前期積極以低價搶標建立低成本的優勢，在外界訂單的production quantity較小時不明顯，此時建議如單期一樣用m_((1))當作標案的加價。若將期數拉長，此時在前期採取積極策略搶標，製造費率低對後期標案的效果轉趨明顯，後期標案的加價可上調，積極獲取利潤彌補前期搶標的低利潤。而外界競爭對手數量，僅影響得標機率、製造費率與利潤的數值，不影響各策略的利潤排序。此外起始稼動率u_0對於策略選擇也有所影響，在u_0較小 production quantity數值也小時，建議在前期以低價搶標，後期上調加價彌補前期搶標的低利潤。當production quantity數值較大時，則建議前期改為保守不以低加價搶標的策略。然而隨著u_0變大，在production quantity數值較大時前期須改採積極搶標的策略。最後將稼動率消耗率α加入模型以貼近實際生產狀況，發現納入α時使稼動率上升的速率變慢，導致製造費率下降的速率隨之變慢。當α數值逐漸增加，後期的策略選擇須轉趨保守，不宜如同先前在後期採用積極策略以收獲利潤。

In the competitive market environment, we hope that small and medium enterprise machinery processing factories can increase the utilization rate of the factory and reduce the manufacturing rate due to the receipt of the order after the request for quotes(RFQ), and obtain a higher chance of winning the bid in the next RFQ. A positive cycle is formed, so how to model this situation is a research topic. We divide into single-period RFQ and multi-period RFQ according to the number of phases to be discussed, and divide the phase into early-stage and late-stage in multi-period RFQ. Regardless of the early and late stages, there are two options: conservative and active. Therefore, there are 4 strategies in total. Only the markup of the single-period RFQ is considered, and the increase in the utilization rate after the RFQ and that the reduction in the rate of manufacturing overhead has the spillover effect on the later RFQ is not considered, the data shows that the minimum value m_((1)) of the order statistics allocated by the external price markup is used to participate, which can get the most profit in the bidding. In multi-period RFQ, we include the effect of the rate of manufacturing overhead reduction on later RFQ. We found that if the number of periods covered is short, the advantage of low-cost bidding is actively established in the early stage, but it is not obvious when the RFQ production quantity is small. In this case, it is recommended to use m_((1)) as markup like single period RFQ. If the number of phases is lengthened, an active strategy is adopted in the early stage to grab bids, and the effect of low manufacturing overhead rates on later bids will become more obvious, and the price increase in later bids can be raised to actively obtain profits to make up for the low profits of early bid. The number of external competitors only affects the probability of winning the bid, the manufacturing overhead rate and the value of profit, and does not affect the profit ranking of each strategy. In addition, the initial utilization rate u_0 also has an impact on the strategy selection. When u_0 is small, the RFQ production quantity is also small. It is recommended to grab the bid at a low price in the early stage, and increase the markup in the later stage to make up for the low profit of the early bid. When the RFQ production quantity is large, it is recommended to change to a conservative strategy of not bidding at a low price in the early stage. However, as u_0 becomes larger, when the RFQ production quantity is large, the strategy of aggressive bidding must be adopted in the early stage. Finally, the utilization dissipation rate α is added to the model to be close to the actual production situation. It is found that when α is included, the rate of increase of utilization rate becomes slower, resulting in slower rate of decline of manufacturing overhead rate. When the α value gradually increases, the strategy selection in the later stage must be conservative, and it is not appropriate to adopt an active strategy in the later stage to reap profits.