馬英九總統時期之國家戰略再評價（2008-2016）

Abstract

本文之研究動機與目的為欲評價馬英九政府的國家戰略。本文認為臺灣需要最大的迴旋空間，如何利用與中共間的統獨選擇保障臺灣的最大戰略彈性是最重要；研究理論與架構先借用沃爾茲提出的個人層次、國家層次及國際層次分析三層次理論出發，次以學者明居正主張1989-1991年蘇聯解體後國際體系變成以美國霸權為首的「一霸四強」一元體系格局展開，一霸是美國，四強是有潛力發展成威脅美國霸權地位的日本、中共、俄國及歐盟等明日霸權國家，接續在美中日的互動架構下加入我國調整成美中日臺四國關係，再於臺灣後方新增一條戰略迴旋空間支線及上方新增一條國際活動空間支線，用以更好詮釋國家戰略的評價角度與觀察縱深，本文稱「風箏型國家戰略」；國家戰略評價標準是領導人的國家戰略是否能保障臺灣最大的戰略彈性與空間，國家戰略評價指標依序為戰略的認知與排序、戰略的操作與執行及戰略空間的繼承。 本文研究發現十三點如下：一、國家戰略相關研究太少致研究困難；二、風箏型國家戰略可以更好詮釋國家戰略的評價角度與觀察縱深；三、公投法可以是戰略性武器用以平衡中美臺壓力；四、國家戰略的三階段設計常出現誤判或錯誤的通常是國際間敵友辨識與國際間敵友的戰略排序；五、陳水扁總統的國家戰略初期對中共釋出善意與統合論可能是多重考量下平行黨內路線與順勢接下中共訊息的選擇；六、馬英九總統在國家戰略的目的及策略操作層次的效果顯具爭議；七、馬英九總統的國家戰略可能有親中促變，至少是和中期和；八、馬英九總統的外交政策與三不政策是不滿意可以改口的戰略姿態；九、馬英九總統的國防政策是平衡中國壓力的戰略姿態一環但有瑕疵；十、馬英九總統的對美軍購史上最鉅卻買不到潛艦可能是國民黨在野時的政治操作失誤；十一、馬英九總統的開放陸資下未有效防止紅媒滲透是全世界的鬆懈，但對中共認識最深刻的臺灣最有資格喚醒全世界，臺灣要幫世界看清中共卻沒有做到；十二、馬英九總統的馬習會是在不使用戰略迴旋空間並將其壓縮到極限爭取到的政策遺產，更是留給繼任者向中共改口的喊價空間但有瑕疵；十三、馬英九總統為守住國家利益可能選擇放棄長時效的個人名譽。

The motivation and purpose of this thesis is to evaluate the national strategy of the Ma Ying-jeou government. This paper argues that Taiwan needs maximum oscillation space, and the most important is how to use the unification and independence choice with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to ensure Taiwan's maximum strategic flexibility; the research theory and structure first borrow the individuals level, the states level and the international system level proposed by Kenneth Waltz to analyze the three levels From the theoretical point of view, Secondly,usde from scholar Chu-cheng Ming advocated that after the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1989-1991, the international system became a 'one hegemony and four powers' monistic system led by the US hegemony. The hegemonic countries which in the hegemonic position of tomorrow such as Japan, CCP, Russia, and the European Union, etc., Continue to join our Nation under the interactive framework of the United States, China and Japan, and form the four-country relationship between the United States, China, Japan and Taiwan after adjustment, and then add a new strategic oscillation space branch behind Taiwan and a new international activity space branch above Taiwan. Two branch lines are used to better explain the evaluation angle and observation depth of the national strategy. This thesis calls it 'kite-type national strategy'; the national strategy evaluation standard is whether the leader's national strategy can guarantee Taiwan's greatest strategic flexibility and space, The national strategy evaluation indicators are the cognition and ranking of strategies, the operation and execution of strategies, and the inheritance of strategic space. The thirteen points found in this thesis are as follows: 1. Too few research materials related to national strategy lead to research difficulties; 2. Kite-type national strategy can better explain the evaluation angle and observation depth of national strategy; 3. Referendum law can be used as a strategic weapon To balance the pressure between China, the United States and domestic political pressures; 4. Misjudgments or mistakes which often occur in the three-stage design of the national strategy are the identification and the strategic ordering of international enemies and friends; 5. President Chen Shuei-bian's goodwill and unity theory towards the CCP in the early stage of the national strategy may be the choice of paralleling the party's line and taking advantage of the CCP's message under multiple considerations; 6. The purpose of President Ma Ying-jeou’s national strategy and the effect of the level of strategic operation are controversial; 7. President Ma Ying-jeou’s national strategy may be Peaceful evolution of the CCP through pro-China policies, at least Hope for Peace through Peace Policy with the CCP; 8. President Ma Ying-jeou's foreign policy and three inaction policies are strategic postures that can be changed if he is dissatisfied; 9. President Ma Ying-jeou's national defense policy is a part of a strategic posture to balance the pressure on the CCP which it is flawed; 10. President Ma Ying-jeou's arms purchases from the US is the largest in history But failed to buy diesel-electric submarineit which may be a political Misjudgments or mistakes of the Chinese Nationalist Party which when was in opposition; 11. President Ma Ying-jeou's cross-strait exchange open policy but fails to effectively prevent the infiltration of CCP’s media is a laxity, Although this is also widespread laxity around the worl. Taiwan, which has the deepest understanding of the CCP, is most qualified to be the whistleblower but fails to wake up the world; 12. President Ma Ying-jeou's Ma-Xi meeting is a policy legacy won by not using the strategic oscillation space and compressing it to the limit, and it also leaves space for the president's successor to change his policy about the CCP which it is flawed; 13. President Ma Ying-jeou may have chosen to give up his long- term personal reputation in order to defend the national interests.