新冠肺炎疫情對黃檸檬銷售通路的影響-以悠綠客有限公司為例

Abstract

2019年11月新冠狀病毒所引發的疫情蔓延全球，進而引發了本世紀最大規模人類與病毒的戰疫。隨著COVID-19疫情的發生，也顯著改變了個案公司黃檸檬的通路營收。本研究以個案公司2019/1/1至2021/12/31資料剖析，瞭解疫情如何影響該公司的通路營運狀況，透過行銷通路的實際數據，分析COVID-19疫情期間對該公司行銷通路消長的影響。 本文透過迴歸模型估計，探討個案公司在疫情期間通路銷售與COVID-19新確診病例、累積確診數、疫情發佈等級的關聯性。研究結果顯示，個案公司餐廳通路與新確定病例數之標準化係數有顯著的負相關；超市通路與累積確診數、疫情等級之標準化係數有顯著的正相關；電商通路與新確定病例數、累積確診數、疫情等級之標準化係數有顯著的正相關。顯示個案公司電商通路在疫情3級警戒下，銷售數量與營收金額仍持續成長。 本文進一步觀察個案公司銷售數量在2020、2021與疫情等級、新確定病例數、累積確診數之間的關聯性進行比較。2020、2021之標準化係數與疫情等級、新確定病例數、累積確診數為正相關，具有顯著性，因此本研究從時間序列模型進行預測個案公司未來2年的銷售走勢。個案公司2022-2024年銷售通路中，餐廳銷售數量將保持穩定，超市的銷售額波動仍較大，而電商部分將呈現上升趨勢，並且總量也呈上升趨勢。從長遠來看，隱含個案公司在總銷量和總銷售額仍呈現出較高的發展空間。尤其是電商通路部分，隨著疫情的持續發展，個案公司黃檸檬在電商通路中，可加碼經營，建立出知名的市場品牌。

The outbreak caused by the new coronavirus in November 2019 spread around the world, triggering the largest human-virus war in this century. With the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, the channel revenue of the case company Yellow Lemon has also been significantly changed. This research analyzes the data of a case company from 2019/1/1 to 2021/12/31 to understand how the epidemic affects the company's channel operations. Through the actual data of marketing channels, it analyzes the growth and decline of the company's marketing channels during the COVID-19 epidemic. Influence. Through the derivation and construction of the regression model, this paper demonstrates the correlation between the channel sales of the company during the epidemic and the new confirmed cases of COVID-19, the cumulative number of confirmed cases, and the release level of the epidemic, and obtains the function results and time series model predictions. The research results show that the restaurant channel of the case company has a significant negative correlation with the standardized coefficient of the number of newly confirmed cases; the supermarket channel has a significant positive correlation with the cumulative number of confirmed cases and the standardized coefficient of the epidemic level; e-commerce channel and the number of newly confirmed cases, cumulative There is a significant positive correlation between the number of confirmed diagnoses and the standardized coefficient of epidemic level. It shows that the company's e-commerce channel has continued to grow in sales volume and revenue under the level 3 alert of the epidemic. This article further observes the correlation between the sales volume of the case company in 2020 and 2021 and the level of the epidemic, the number of newly confirmed cases, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases. The standardized coefficient of 2020 and 2021 is positively correlated with the epidemic level, the number of newly confirmed cases, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases, which is significant. Therefore, this study uses a time series model to predict the sales trend of the case company in the next two years. In the sales channel of the case company from 2022 to 2024, the sales volume of restaurants will remain stable, the sales of supermarkets will still fluctuate greatly, and the e-commerce part will show an upward trend, and the total volume will also show an upward trend. In the long run, implied case companies still show a high room for development in terms of total sales and total sales. Especially in the e-commerce channel, with the continuous development of the epidemic, the case company Huang Lemon can increase its operation in the e-commerce channel and establish a well-known market brand.