新冠肺炎疫情對臺灣有機農產品銷售的影響- 以T合作社為例

Abstract

本研究為探討新冠肺炎疫情(COVID-19)對於我國有機農產品銷售的影響，從背景及文獻資料中可了解到有機農產品因在生產、加工製造及流通過程禁止使用農藥、化學肥料及各種有害環境物質，故其在食品安全方面及對維護環境資源永續及淨零排放目標方面相較一般慣行農產品有更多的貢獻；也因此儘管有機農業耕作成本較高但在我國及各國政府以政策大力推動並支持有機農業的發展下，不論有機耕作面積、產業投入人口或是消費市場發展上皆有大幅成長趨勢。 在2020年初爆發新冠肺炎疫情後，至今該疫情仍然持續影響著人類各個方面的活動，為了減少被病毒感染及傳播機會，人們大規模的將實體接觸活動轉為線上進行，產銷供應鏈也因此遭受嚴重衝擊，本研究採用T合作社四年銷售數據以迴歸分析為研究方法來探討國產有機農產品受疫情影響下的銷售的情形，實證結果為在1%顯著水準之下，可得出每日確診數增加及實施餐飲管制措施導致有機農產品銷售金額增加的結論，新增確診數每多100例，交易金額會增加5.6%，實施三級餐飲管制時交易金額對比未實施時會增加34.5%；在產品分類部分實證結果為在1%顯著水準之下，實施三級餐飲管制時有機生鮮農產品銷售金額對照未實施時達到顯著正相關且銷售金額會增加36.4%；在通路分類實證結果為在1%顯著水準之下，實施三級餐飲管制時有機超市、賣場及其他(含網購)通路之銷售金額對照無實施時具有顯著正相關且銷售金額分別會增加36.4%、125%及16.7%。 本研究以實際銷售數據分析之實證結果與先前文獻以問卷分析結果相符，得出人們對於有機農產品的印象為健康、安全的食品，且認為要對抗疫情需提高免疫力，攝入均衡且健康的飲食能有所幫助而增加消費，另外本研究之實證結果也顯示消費者偏好較安心、便利的通路消費之結論。 最後在建議部分藉由疫情前後之SWOT分析，在機會部分建議把握有機耕作可減碳排符合企業ESG理念及中草藥抗疫的商機加強產業面輔導，在劣勢及威脅部分應加強田間及市售農藥檢驗把關、擴大使用自動化生產設備、加工及冷鏈物流設備，以及鼓勵地產地銷並加強建構農產品網路銷售通路。

The objective of this study was to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sales of organic products in Taiwan. Literature review indicated that organic products prohibit the use of pesticides, chemical fertilizers and various hazardous environmental substances during production, processing and distribution. Therefore, organic products contribute more to food safety and environmental resource sustainability than usual agricultural products do, and are more likely to reach the net zero emissions goal. Despite the high cost of organic farming, a significant growth can be seen in organic industry populations, the area of the organic farm, and the market size of organic products because of vigorous policies governments have set to support it. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected human activities since the outbreak in early 2020. To control the infection and spread of the virus, people have shifted their activities online. This trend has substantially impacted the production and supply chain for domestic organic agricultural products. To discuss how COVID-19 impacts the sales status of the domestic organic agricultural market, the study conducts regression analysis with 4-year T cooperative’s data. The empirical result at the 1% significance level, indicates that the increase of COVID-19 confirmed cases and the catering restrictions have led to an increase in the sales amount of organic agricultural products by 5.6% and 34.5% when every 100 COVID-19 confirmed cases and during level third catering restrictions compared with the normal situation. Organic fresh product sales amount increased by 36.4% during level third catering restrictions and show a significant positive correlation at 1% significance level. Sales channel categories, including organic supermarket, hypermarket and other channels (including online shopping) increased by 36.4%、125% and 16.7% respectively during level third catering restrictions at 1% significance level. This study is based on actual sales data and our analysis is consistent with previous literature based on survey technique results. We have shown that people's impression of organic agricultural products is healthy and safe to consume, and it is crucial to keep a balanced and healthy diet so to improve immunity to fight the epidemic. By so, from the results of the study, we can conclude consumers prefer a safer and more convenient consuming channel choice. Finally, in the suggestion section, through the analysis of SWOT, we recommended strengthening the industry and grasping the business opportunities of organic agriculture that have carbon emission reduction advantages that comply with corporate ESG and can be used in herbal medicine to fight the epidemic. As for the disadvantages and threats, we recommended that regular inspections in the field and market should be strengthened, subsidies for automated production equipment, and processing. In addition, we believe cold chain logistics equipment should be expanded, the local producing market system should be encouraged, and the government should help to build online sales channels for agricultural products.