二次物料競爭模型建立之研究－以廢塑膠為例

Abstract

為了應對未來資源稀缺之趨勢，及經濟活動產生之廢棄物總量逐年增長的問題，循環經濟的做法提供了產業界革新轉型的可能性，透過將廢棄物投入再利用產業，使其再生為二次物料回到經濟體系中，不僅有助於減緩自然資源的開採速度，也可能創造更大的經濟價值。而在政策方面，許多國家陸續提出更加嚴格的廢棄物減量及回收目標，期待透過掩埋稅、焚化稅、再利用技術補貼、物料稅等相關政策之刺激，降低產業界選擇掩埋技術及焚化技術的意願，甚至願意選擇再利用技術將更多廢棄物重生為二次物料，以提升二次物料市場的活絡程度。 為了提供決策者關於資源稀缺、循環經濟、永續發展等重要議題的政策建議，許多國家運用整合性評估模型量化政策對於經濟、環境、社會等多層面的影響，並嘗試釐清政策加乘性、產業連動關係等政策評估之難題。然而，當前廣為使用的大型整合性評估模型較少涵蓋不同廢棄物處理方式之評估，對於一次物料與二次物料間的競爭關係也甚少提及，整體而言，此類評估模型在物料競爭層面的探討仍有許多發展空間。 因此，本研究以技術競爭模型(FTT-Waste)，搭配廢棄物投入產出模型(WIO)及經濟模型(CGE)，建立一套二次物料競爭模型，以廢塑膠為例，探討各政策情境如何影響不同廢棄物處理技術間的競爭關係，以及量化當二次塑膠原料進入市場後，一次塑膠原料產業與二次塑膠原料產業的競爭情形，及其對總體經濟及其他個別產業的影響。 研究結果顯示，政策情境的差異將影響臺灣廢棄物處理技術之未來發展趨勢，其中，在不施行任何掩埋稅、焚化稅、再利用補貼等政策的基線情境下，未來掩埋技術之市佔率持續處於低點、焚化技術之市佔率擁有絕對優勢，而再利用技術則在未來的市場發展中逐漸退場；但在本研究提出之最佳廢棄物政策組合情境中，可透過政策加乘的效果，達到「提高再利用技術的市場佔有率」及「降低掩埋技術及焚化技術的市場佔有率」兩項目標。接續上述結果，在使用了物料稅的最佳政策組合情境中，二次塑膠原料產業之規模大幅增加、一次塑膠原料產業之規模則相對縮減，顯示二次塑膠原料在市場中更具競爭力，且市場對一次塑膠原料的需求下降，此外，該政策情境之實施，不僅因為產業連動效果影響了電子零組件、基本金屬等其他產業，更對總體經濟造成負面影響(GDP下降)，但值得注意的是，整體資源效率有所提升，表示國家有能力用相同的資源量達到更大的經濟成果。 整體而言，本研究建立之二次物料競爭模型模擬結果顯示，若是塑膠廢棄物的流向不再只有傳統的掩埋場及焚化廠，而是透過再利用技術將廢棄物重新導入市場中，不僅能使整體資源使用效率有所提升，更能為廢棄物找到新價值，例如：二次塑膠原料產業的發展。

In order to cope with the resource scarcity issues and the problem of increasing waste generated by economic activities, the circular economy approach provides the opportunity for industry transformation. By recycling, the waste can be turned into secondary materials, and then be reintroduced into the production system. This may not only slow down the exploitation of natural resources but create additional economic value. In terms of government policies, many countries have gradually proposed more stringent waste reduction and material recycling targets. And environmental policies such as landfill tax, incineration tax, recycling subsidy and material tax, have also been implemented to encourage waste recycling and reduce waste that is sent to landfill and incinerator. In order to provide policy makers with effective recommendations on important issues such as resource scarcity, circular economy, and sustainable development, many countries use Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to evaluate and quantify the impact of policies on economy, environment, and society, and also try to clarify the problems on policy synergy and interrelationships among industries. However, assessments of waste managements or competition between primary and secondary materials are poorly represented in the majority of quantitative models. Therefore, this research establishes a set of “Secondary Material Competition model” comprised of the technology competition model (FTT-Waste), the waste input-output model (WIO), and the economic model (CGE). The Secondary Material Competition model is applied to explore how various policy scenarios affect the competition between different waste managements, and then evaluate the competition between primary and secondary plastic materials, macro-economic effect, and the interrelationships among individual industries. The results show that different policy scenarios will affect future waste management patterns in Taiwan. For example, in the baseline scenario, the market share of landfill technology will remain at a great disadvantage, and the market share of incineration technology will have an absolute advantage in market competition, while the recycling technology will gradually withdraw in the future. However, in the optimum waste management scenario proposed in this research, the two goals of 'increasing the market share of recycling technology' and 'reducing the market share of landfill and incineration technology' can both be achieved. Besides, in the optimum policy scenario, the scale of the secondary plastic material industry will increase significantly, while the scale of the primary plastic material industry will relatively decrease, showing that secondary plastic materials are more competitive in the market and the demand for primary plastic materials has declined. In addition, the implementation of this policy scenario not only affects other industries such as electronic parts and components sector and basic metals sector, but has a negative impact on macro-economic output (GDP decline). However, it is worth mentioning that the overall resource efficiency is improved. In conclusion, the simulation results provided by the “Secondary Material Competition model” suggest that plastic waste should be turned into secondary materials and be reintroduced into the production system, instead of disposal to landfill or incineration. This will not only improve the overall resource efficiency, but create new value for plastic waste, such as the development of the secondary plastic material industry.