中國大陸新建商品住宅價格與宏觀調控政策關聯之研究

Abstract

本研究以2011年至2021年共132筆月資料建立以中國七十大城市新建商品住宅平均價格(YoY，以下稱年比)為被解釋變數；納入宏觀調控政策變數包括：中國一年期貸款市場報價利率(Loan Prime Rate，以下簡稱LPR) (年比)、中國存款準備金率(年比)、差異化住房信貸政策、二手房個人所得稅政策、二手房增值稅政策、限購政策；另以中國消費者物價指數(年比)、中國零售銷售數據(年比)為總體經濟控制變數，並以一年作為各影響房價變數之滯後時點；以回歸模型F檢定審視房地產宏觀調控政策施行與否對房價之影響是否具差異性。結果顯示各宏觀調控政策中，中國存款準備金率與一年期LPR對於房價的衝擊程度最大，差異化住房信貸政策、二手房所得稅政策、二手房增值稅政策均與政策邊際放鬆對房價之影響具顯著差異，然戶籍限購的執行實際力度結果不顯著。

This study adopts a sample of a total of 132 monthly time series observations from 2011 to 2021 to establish a regression model, for which the average price of China 70 largest cities’ new commercial residential buildings (YoY) is the dependent variable； independent variables for macro-control policies, all lagged by one year, include China one-year LPR (YoY), China deposit reserve ratio (YoY), differentiated housing credit policies, personal income tax for second-hand housing transaction, value-added tax for second-hand housing transaction, and property-purchasing limitation. Furthermore, China CPI (YoY) and China retail sales (YoY) serve as the controlled macroeconomic variables. F test is used to examine the differences in their impacts among the aforementioned macro-control policies on house prices. The results show that among the various macro-control policies, deposit reserve ratio as well as one-year LPR have the greatest impacts on house prices. Moreover, differentiated housing credit policies, personal income tax for second-hand housing transaction, and value-added tax for second-hand housing transaction have significantly different impacts from those regrading implementing looser policies on house prices. The coefficient pertaining the influence of implementation of property-purchasing limitation, however, is statistically insignificant.