論貪腐與拉美左翼退潮—以司法制衡的角度分析

Abstract

從新自由主義到二十一世紀初的左翼浪潮，意識形態的轉變在拉丁美洲研究一直被廣泛地討論。對於近年來左翼浪潮的衰退現象，本文以委任式民主理論為基礎，認為選民對左翼領導人貪腐行為的課責是關鍵因素，而司法制衡力量的提升有助於對貪腐的揭露。 本文分成兩部分檢驗這個觀點，首先以總體層次資料分析，發現左翼浪潮以降，當選民愈認為政府貪腐，左翼得票率愈低，且在領導人意識形態右轉的國家中，選民對政府的貪腐感受有上升趨勢。換句話說右翼候選人之所以能取代左翼執政者贏得選舉，可能與選民對政府的貪腐感受有關。此外，經觀察發現右轉國家中，總統受司法起訴的比率較高，且右轉國家的司法制衡力量亦有上升趨勢。本文續以事件史分析，發現左翼政府若面對高司法制衡力量時，失去政權的可能性較高。最後，透過初步的質化研究，驗證左翼執政者具有委任式民主領導人特徵，以及在右轉國家有貪腐案件的浮現，且政府努力改善司法制衡力量。 個體層次以複層次迴歸檢驗假設，確立選民貪腐感受對投票行為的影響以及司法制衡的調節作用。另外，經由從左翼浪潮崛起到退潮兩個時間點的比較，發現選民所關注的國家問題有結構性變化，右轉國家選民最重視的議題從經濟轉至貪腐議題，符合左翼以經濟問題崛起，因貪腐議題受到課責的觀點。

From neoliberalism to the Pink Tide, ideology has been a topic worthy of discussion in Latin America. With the purpose of explaining the phenomenon of the ebbing of the Pink Tide, we adopt the theory of O’Donnell’s delegative democracy, presuming that corruption is a key factor in this outcome. Furthermore, we argue that the improvement of judicial constraint, which is treated as the moderator in this research, increases the exposure of politicians’ corruptive behaviors. The research consists of two levels of analysis to examine this point of view. At the macro level, the data shows that since the beginning of the Pink Tide, the higher the voters’ corruption perception, the fewer votes the left-wing parties can get. Besides, there is an ascending tendency towards the perception of government corruption in the right-turn countries. In terms of the judiciary, there is a higher rate of judicial prosecution against the presidents in the right-turn countries. Moreover, the power of judicial constraint also has a rising tendency in these countries. By means of the survival analysis, it is found that the left-wing governments are more likely to lose power if they face a high level of judicial constraint. Through preliminary qualitative research, these countries are in concordance with our argument. The left-wing governors have the characteristics of delegative democracy. In addition, there are allegations of corruption around these right-turned countries, and the new right-wing governors commit to stamp out corruption during their electoral campaign. At the individual level, we use Hierarchical Generalized Linear Model (HGLM) to test the hypotheses. The result corroborates the impact of voters’ corruption perceptions on their voting behavior and the moderating effect of judicial constraint. By taking the timing into consideration, there is a structural change on the major national issues in comparison of the rise of the left-wing parties and the ebbing of the Pink Tide. In the right-turned countries, the most important issue for voters shifts from economy to corruption issue. This transition corresponds with our perspective that the left-wing parties arise from voters’ economic concern, but decay due to the corruption issue.