使用存活年−年代−世代模型預測臺灣肺癌存活率至2025年

Abstract

肺癌是所有癌症中死亡率最高的。為提高肺癌存活率，國際肺癌防治聯盟-肺志氣聯盟揭櫫於2025年將肺癌5年存活率翻倍的目標。本研究使用臺灣癌症登記中心1997年7月至2018年6月的肺癌資料，利用存活年-年代-世代模型進行臺灣肺癌患者存活率之未來預測。我們發現臺灣肺癌存活率在2004診斷年之前下降，此後上升。至2025年，肺癌五年存活率將從目前的23.8%提升至38.7%，增加絕對量為14.9%，提升倍率為1.6倍。肺癌存活率2004年後上升與標靶藥物和正子斷層造影納入健保給付的時間點相吻合。低劑量電腦斷層掃描肺癌篩檢亦有助益肺癌存活率的上升。

Lung cancer has the highest mortality rate of all cancers. To improve the survival rate of lung cancer, the global lung cancer prevention alliance-Lung Ambition Alliance announced the goal of doubling the 5-year survival of lung cancer by 2025. We used lung cancer data from the Taiwan Cancer Registry from July 1997 to June 2018, and we predicted the future survival of lung cancer patients in Taiwan using the survivorship-period-cohort model. We found that the survival for lung cancer in Taiwan decreased before 2004 year of diagnosis and increased after that. By 2025, the 5-year survival of lung cancer will increase from 23.8% to 38.7%, an absolute increase of 14.9%, and a 1.6-fold increase. The increase in survival after 2004 coincided with when National Health Insurance paid for the targeted drugs and positron emission tomography. Lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography has also improved lung cancer survival.