油價對經濟成長影響之探討—考慮國家特性差異的追蹤資料分量迴歸

Abstract

本文建立了 33 個國家，涵蓋 1996 年至 2020 年 25 年，共計 2,901 個觀察值的非平衡型追蹤資料模型，並考量匯率波動、油價的不同衡量方式以及三種國家特性的調節效應試圖了解油價如何影響一國之經濟成長率。本文採用一般 OLS 迴歸模型與分量迴歸模型進行交互比對，發現油價變動率對經濟成長率的影響程度相當低，而油價標準差是更為顯著的影響因子，且當國家處於不同的經濟成長狀態時受到油價波動的影響程度也會有所差異。其次，發現油價上漲時對經濟成長率影響不大，然而下跌時卻對經濟成長率存在負面影響。最後，本文發現第二級產業比重、原油淨出口占 GDP 比重兩個國家特性在油價對經濟成長率的影響具有顯著調節效果，而原油消費彈性的調節效果不顯著。

We construct a non-balanced panel model for 33 countries, covering 25 years from 1996 to 2020, with a total of 2,901 observations, and consider exchange rate fluctuations, different oil price measures, and three country characteristics to examine how oil prices affect a country's economic growth rate. We use OLS regression model and a quantile regression model to compare, and the empirical results show that the oil price growth has little impact on the economic growth rate, while oil price volatility is a more significant impact factor, and the degree of impact of oil price volatility varies when countries are in different economic growth states. Secondly, the results show that an increase in oil prices has little impact on the economic growth rate, while a decrease in oil prices has a negative effect. Finally, we find that the share of secondary industries and the ratio of net crude oil exports to GDP have a significant moderation effect on the impact of oil prices on economic growth rate, while the elasticity of crude oil consumption is not a significant moderator variable.