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完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.advisor | 詹魁元(Kuei-Yuan Chan) | |
dc.contributor.author | Yi-Ping Chen | en |
dc.contributor.author | 陳怡平 | zh_TW |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-05-20T00:54:57Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2020-07-17 | |
dc.date.available | 2021-05-20T00:54:57Z | - |
dc.date.copyright | 2020-07-17 | |
dc.date.issued | 2020 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2020-07-13 | |
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dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/8459 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 模擬模型是系統開發階段重要的工具之一,如何透過模型驗證以優化模型,建立高度可靠之模型更是重要的議題。本研究在模型與真實系統僅存在參數的偏差之假設下,以校準模型參數為設計出發點,提出一套系統化的參數校準流程,用以解決普遍的驗證程序中,參數校準無法有效診斷模型與真實系統的誤差來源、且缺乏系統化的建立參數驗證操作之處境。 本研究在考量模型的複雜程度導致模擬成本過高的情況下,以電腦實驗設計與分析(Design and Analysis of Computer Experiment, DACE) 之概念結合替代模型,設計一套可用於複雜系統分析的模型驗證流程,透過對系統輸出進行全域敏感度分析,進一步使用最佳化方法設計於激發觀測參數的操作方法,並以基於混沌多項式之卡爾曼濾波器進行參數校準,最後驗證結果。本研究以單一輸出及動態輸出之數學模型確認所提出之方法的可行性,同時驗證了此方法的一般性。再以一自建之線控操作三輪車做為分析對象之車輛工程案例,透過所提出之方法,對車輛動力學模型中的不確定參數進行校準,得到於95%信心水準下被認定為準確之模型參數。透過多個案例,也強調了所提出之方法的重要性。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | Simulation models play important roles in efficient product development cycles. The ability to improve the confidence level of models during the validation stage is also an important topic. In this research, we proposed a systematic procedure on model validation by assuming all the output errors between simulation models and real model experiments are contributed from deviations of model parameters. This procedure aims to counter the inability to create a proper and logical operation when validating dynamic models. In this research, considering the expensive costs associated with model simulation used in complex systems, a Design and Analysis of Computer Simulation (DACE) based procedure including an optimization method for generating a proper operation which maximizes the sensitivity of uncertain parameters based on global sensitivity analysis (GSA), estimation of parameters with polynomial chaos-based Kalman filter, and model validation based on hypothesis testing, is introduced. Furthermore, two illustrative math models with scalar and dynamic output are demonstrated to verify the method, consequently proving its generality. Finally, an application on validating vehicle dynamic models is shown as an engineering case, which successfully estimates the unknown model parameters with 95% confidence. The significance of this research is also emphasized through multiple cases. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-05-20T00:54:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 U0001-0907202010523400.pdf: 10142308 bytes, checksum: 5282ed04ed43e4868fac432408c00aa2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2020 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 口試委員會審定書---i 誌謝---ii 中文摘要---v Abstract---vi 目錄---vii 圖目錄---xv 表目錄---xxiii 符號列表---xxvi 名詞對照表---xxx 第一章 緒論---1 1.1 模擬模型驗證與校準---1 1.2 車輛動態測試---3 1.2.1 車輛動態測試方法---3 1.2.2 參數校準於車輛開發工程中之困境---4 1.3 研究動機---5 1.4 研究目的---7 1.5 論文架構---8 第二章 研究背景與文獻回顧---10 2.1 動態系統之參數激發---10 2.2 敏感度分析---12 2.2.1 全域敏感度分析---13 2.2.2 應用於動態系統之全域敏感度分析---14 2.3 複雜系統於不確定因素下之設計---16 2.3.1 DACE (Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments)---16 2.3.2 低差異取樣方法---17 2.3.3 替代模型---20 2.4 動態系統參數校準---22 2.5 小結---26 第三章 研究方法---27 3.1 真實系統、模擬模型、和實驗與模型驗證之關聯---28 3.2 低差異取樣---30 3.2.1 Radical Inversion---30 3.2.2 生成矩陣---30 3.3 替代模型---32 3.3.1 Kriging模型---32 3.3.2 EGO 演算法(Efficient Global Optimization)---35 3.3.3 模型擬合度評估指標---37 3.4 全域敏感度分析---38 3.4.1 Sobol 全域敏感度分析法---38 3.4.2 基於替代模型之全域敏感度分析方法---41 3.4.3 主成分分析---43 3.4.4 基於替代模型之動態系統全域敏感度分析方法---46 3.5 最佳化操作參數---49 3.5.1 指標產生函數---49 3.5.2 目標函數---51 3.5.3 最佳化演算法與流程---52 3.6 動態系統之參數校準---53 3.6.1 混沌多項式展開---53 3.6.2 卡爾曼濾波器---57 3.6.3 應用多項式混沌展開與卡爾曼濾波器於參數校準---60 3.7 參數校準驗證方法---62 3.8 小結---64 第四章 單一輸出數學模型之不確定參數激發---65 4.1 數學模型---65 4.1.1 數學方程式之參數組成---65 4.1.2 敏感度指標求解困境---66 4.2 全域敏感度分析---66 4.2.1 直接求解法---67 4.2.2 替代模型求解法---68 4.3 替代模型求解與評估---73 4.3.1 Kriging模型擬合準確度評估---73 4.3.2 全域敏感度指標之準確度評估---75 4.4 最佳化操作參數與準確度評估---76 4.4.1 最佳化操作參數之目標函數---76 4.4.2 最佳化結果及準確度評估---76 4.5 小結---80 第五章 動態輸出數學模型之不確定模型參數激發與校準---82 5.1 數學模型---82 5.2 全域敏感度分析---83 5.2.1 直接求解動態系統全域敏感度指標---83 5.2.2 基於替代模型之動態系統全域敏感度分析方法---86 5.3 替代模型求解與評估---88 5.3.1 Kriging 模型擬合準確度評估---88 5.3.2 全域敏感度指標之準確度評估---97 5.4 最佳化操作參數及準確度評估---98 5.4.1 最佳化目標函數---98 5.4.2 最佳化結果與準確度評估---99 5.5 模型參數校準---104 5.6 模型驗證---110 5.7 小結---113 第六章 車輛工程案例---114 6.1 車輛模型建構---114 6.1.1 硬體規格---114 6.1.2 模型架構---116 6.1.3 不確定模型參數---118 6.2 路徑參數化與車輛模型駕駛---120 6.2.1 車道變換---120 6.2.2 定轉角轉向---121 6.2.3 啾頻---121 6.2.4 閉迴路駕駛與開迴路駕駛---123 6.3 參數激發與校準之操作流程---124 6.3.1 模型運作概述---125 6.3.2 完整操作流程---125 6.4 Kriging模型擬合準確度評估---127 6.4.1 Kriging模型建立---127 6.4.2 Kriging模型準確度評估---130 6.5 全域敏感度分析---138 6.5.1 全域敏感度分析流程---138 6.5.2 全域敏感度分析準確度評估---139 6.6 最佳化操作參數---141 6.6.1 最佳化流程---142 6.6.2 於不同操作方式下之最佳化操作參數---143 6.7 模型參數校準---148 6.7.1 實驗架構---149 6.7.2 參數校準流程---151 6.7.3 於不同操作參數下之操數校準結果---155 6.7.4 單一整合軌跡之參數校準---162 6.8 模型驗證---164 6.9 小結---166 第七章 結論與討論---167 7.1 研究成果與具體貢獻---167 7.2 討論---169 7.3 未來工作---171 附錄A 車輛模型建構---174 A.1 車輛模型建構方法---175 A.1.1 車輛動力學模型---176 A.1.2 車輛動力學模型種類---177 A.2 轉向次系統---179 A.2.1 轉向馬達---181 A.2.2 轉向連桿---182 A.2.3 後傾效應---184 A.2.4 重心偏移---186 A.2.5 傾斜角與滾轉角---189 A.2.6 外傾角---190 A.3 推進次系統---191 A.3.1 PID控制器---191 A.3.2 輪速轉換---192 A.3.3 馬達模型---193 A.3.4 推進力整合---194 A.4 阻力模型---196 A.4.1 滑動判斷---196 A.4.2 滾動阻力模型---197 A.4.3 空氣阻力模型---199 A.4.4 坡度阻力模型---199 A.5 操控模型---200 A.5.1 側滑角---202 A.5.2 側向力合成---203 A.5.3 回正力矩---204 A.5.4 偏移角速度---205 A.5.5 等效質量---207 A.5.6 正向力分配---208 A.5.7 局部動態---209 A.5.8 全域動態及位置換算---210 A.6 駕駛指令輸入---212 A.6.1 循跡駕駛演算法---212 A.6.2 模擬環境建置及資料蒐集---213 A.7 小結---214 附錄B 車輛工程案例之準確度評估---215 B.1 Kriging模型準確度評估指標---215 B.2 Kriging模型之輸出比較---219 B.3 取樣次數與全域敏感度指標之關係---231 附錄C Matlab Code---234 C.1 單一輸出數學模型---234 C.1.1 數學模型---234 C.1.2 全域敏感度分析主程式---234 C.2 動態輸出數學模型---238 C.2.1 數學模型+ 主成分分析---238 C.2.2 全域敏感度分析---239 C.2.3 最佳化主程式---245 C.2.4 拘束條件---246 C.2.5 基於混沌多項式之卡爾曼濾波器---247 參考文獻---254 | |
dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
dc.title | 不確定參數之最佳激發與校準:以車輛模型開發為例 | zh_TW |
dc.title | Optimal Uncertain Parameter Excitation and Estimation: a Case Study on Vehicle Model Development | en |
dc.type | Thesis | |
dc.date.schoolyear | 108-2 | |
dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
dc.contributor.author-orcid | 0000-0002-9231-0860 | |
dc.contributor.advisor-orcid | 詹魁元(0000-0003-2207-9293) | |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 鄭榮和(Jung-Ho Cheng),李綱(Kang Li) | |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee-orcid | 鄭榮和(0000-0002-5434-1201),李綱(0000-0003-0914-7853) | |
dc.subject.keyword | 模型驗證,參數校準,操作設計,全域敏感度分析,Kriging,DACE,卡爾曼濾波器, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | Model Validation,Parameter Estimation,Maneuver Design,Global Sensitivity Analysis,Kriging,DACE,Kalman Filter, | en |
dc.relation.page | 267 | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU202001406 | |
dc.rights.note | 同意授權(全球公開) | |
dc.date.accepted | 2020-07-14 | |
dc.contributor.author-college | 工學院 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 機械工程學研究所 | zh_TW |
顯示於系所單位: | 機械工程學系 |
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