考量客戶恐慌性囤貨與航運價格調漲環境下的廠商最佳生產規劃策略

Abstract

新冠肺炎無疑是當今最重要的議題之一，其影響的層面不僅僅只是人們的健康安全，對於全球供應鏈結構的衝擊更是前所未見，為了抑制病毒的傳播，各國政府紛紛採取不同層級的管制措施，不論是封城、關閉工廠、禁止內用、居家檢疫、入境隔離的防疫手段，都大幅地降低了人流、物流、金流的流動性。缺料、缺工、缺物流等等的問題都直接衝擊各行各業，人們不僅要擔心被傳染的風險，又同時要擔憂失業、景氣衰退的趨勢；而對於企業而言，特別是在現今全球化的結構，供應鏈專業化分工分散在全球各國，因此一個供應鏈環節的失靈，影響的就會是全球的供應鏈結構，面對疫情的不確定性、上游供給端缺貨的風險、新生活模式造成市場需求端偏好的改變以及運費價格不斷攀升的趨勢，企業紛紛重新思考自身供應鏈策略，並開始提升原物料、半成品、完成品的存貨水準，以降低疫情造成供應鏈斷鏈的衝擊。 本篇論文即是在探討由於疫情各種不確定因素，製造商對於客戶提前供貨要求，甚至是恐慌性囤貨的需求之下，應如何擬訂最佳提前供貨策略。本篇論文以台灣電纜製造業的個案公司作為分析對象，透過個案公司的商業模式、生產方式以及客戶類型相關的模擬數據，建立以極小化總成本為目標的混合整數線性規劃模型，找出最佳的提前供貨策略，其中包含最適提前供貨量以及最適提前供貨月數，最後透過敏感度分析歸納與洞察管理上的商業意涵。 本研究得出以下主要三點結論：（1）提前供貨策略應保有供貨數量上的彈性，以進一步降低總成本。（2）降低加班生產成本較有利於接受客戶提前供貨的要求。（3）對於各類型客戶應採取不同提前供貨策略，並可視為不同防疫層級下的最適策略。

The Covid-19 is undoubtedly one of the most important issues of today. Its impact is not only on people's health and safety, but also on the global supply chain structure. The impact on the structure of the global supply chain is unprecedented. The government’s control policies against spread, whether it is the lockdown of the city, the shutdown of factories, the prohibition of dine in, home quarantine, and board control, have greatly reduced the flow of people, logistics, and cash. Problems such as lack of materials, labor, logistics, etc. have directly impacted all the industries. People not only have to worry about the risk of infection, but also worry about the risk of unemployment and recession. For enterprises, especially in today's globalization, which indicates the specialized structure of the supply chain being scattered in various countries around the world. Therefore, the failure of a node of supply chain will affect the whole supply chain structure. Facing uncertainty of the pandemic, the risk of shortage of upstream supply, changes in demand preferences and rising freight prices, companies have to rethink their supply chain strategies and start to increase the inventory levels of raw materials, semi-finished products and finished products to reduce the impact of supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic. This research is to explore how to formulate the best early supply strategy due to various uncertain factors of the pandemic against customers' request for early supply or even panic buying. This research takes Taiwan's industrial wire and cable manufacturer as case company for analysis. Through the simulated data related to the business model, production planning process and customer portfolio of the case company, this research used mixed integer linear programming model aiming at minimizing the total cost to identify the optimal early supply strategy includes the optimal early supply quantity and the optimal early supply periods. Finally, through sensitivity analysis, this research summarizes the study result and provide insight with business implications for management.