美中科技戰與權力轉移-熱戰可以被避免嗎?

Abstract

進入21世紀之後，中國國力快速崛起，冷戰結束後領導單極體系的美國極為不安，2018年，川普政府發起針對中國的所謂「貿易戰」，爾後很快被世界各地的觀察家發現其實質為科技之爭而又以「科技戰」稱之。本研究以為，美、中兩強日漸升高的競爭乃至衝突本質為大國權力轉移之爭。透過深入探索科技力量在國家權力要素中的重要性提升並定義「科技力」之後，本論文分析了美中科技戰的過程，並深入探討半導體産業為何是美國選定欲取得競爭優勢的焦點，最後並提出主要論據，說明美中科技戰有可能成為美、中兩強權力轉移之爭的一種途徑，最終如同「美蘇冷戰」一般，不致引發熱戰而完成國際體系之可能變遷。

During the 21st century, China's national power has risen rapidly. Meanwhile, during the post-Cold War era, the United States, which led the Unipolar System, was extremely uneasy. In 2018, the Trump Administration began a Trade War against China. Soon, it was clear to the observers around the world that this was a technology competition in essence, and, therefore, known as Tech War. This study argues that the escalating competition and the nature of the conflict between the United States and China is the Power Transition contest. While defining the power of technologies, we describe in detail how the Tech War progressed between the US and China. After in- depth exploration of the increasing importance of technological power in the elements of national power and the definition of "Scientific and Technological Power", this paper analyzes the process of the US-China Tech War, and deeply discusses why the semiconductor industry is the focus of the United States' choice to gain a competitive advantage. Finally, the main arguments are presented, explaining that the US-China Tech War may become a way for the power transition between the U.S. and China. It will eventually be like the "US-Soviet Cold War" and will not lead to a hot war and complete the possible changes in the international system.