大唐霸權的興衰：霸權體系之跨層次分析

Abstract

美國霸權的建立自1991年蘇聯解體至今已逾30年，但霸權體系的運作始終未建立如權力平衡理論一般的系統性理論，用以解釋霸權與體系中其他主要行為者的關係。然而，體系理論的建立有賴於實證經驗的累積，正如早期權力平衡理論的建立便大量借鑑希臘城邦與近代歐洲的歷史。因此，研究霸權的歷史案例，實有助於建立抽象化的霸權理論。本研究主以唐帝國作為霸權體系的分析案例，關鍵在於唐霸權曾經遭遇吐蕃與後突厥的挑戰，導致霸權體系出現鬆動與再鞏固的過程。因此，觀察唐吐蕃、突厥的互動，有助於我們了解霸權體系的運作。 本研究先對既有國關文獻進行回顧，整理出霸權體系的結構特徵與行為邏輯，並指出霸權體系的研究必須要橫跨結構、國際、國內三個層次，方能在實證案例分析中完整解釋體系的運作、國家的互動與國家的行為。接著以國際關係理論的觀點，重新梳理唐霸權體系中，唐與突厥、吐蕃互動關係之歷史文獻，掌握大唐霸權的建立、鬆動與復興的歷史脈絡。最後抽象化與類型化霸權與主要行為者的互動邏輯，以實際案例佐證唐霸權體系的三大結構邏輯：霸權會進行自我克制、霸權會對崛起強權進行抑制、崛起強權會試圖規避霸權的抑制。期待藉由唐霸權體系的分析，豐富歷史與國關研究的理論內涵，為國關學界最終建立普遍適用於古今中外的霸權理論作出些微貢獻。

As the history of Greek City-States and the Concert of Europe are essential for building the Balance of Power (BOP) theory, establishing the theory of hegemony also depends on the accumulation of empirical experience. This dissertation takes Tang Empire as a hegemonic system case study and focuses on the interaction between Turkic Khaganate, Tibetan Empire, and Tang Dynasty. Observing the interactions among main actors during the decline and revival of the hegemon helps us understand the operation of the hegemonic system. This dissertation abstracts the structural characteristics and behavioral logic of the hegemonic system by literature review. This dissertation argues that a cross-level analysis is necessary to explain the system’s operation, interactions among states, and actors’ policy-making. This dissertation interprets the establishment, tottering, and revival of the Tang hegemonic history. Then it inducts the structural logic of the Tang hegemonic system: the hegemon will act in self-restraint, the hegemon will suppress rising powers, and the rising powers will try to evade the suppression of the hegemon. It is expected that the analysis of the Tang hegemonic system would enrich the History-Informed International Relations Studies (HIRS) and some contribution to establishing the theory of hegemony.