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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 游景雲(Gene Jiing-Yun You) | |
| dc.contributor.author | Chu-Chun Yao | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 姚竺均 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2022-11-25T06:33:01Z | - |
| dc.date.copyright | 2021-10-16 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2021 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2021-08-20 | |
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| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/82161 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | "隨著全球科技與經濟的快速發展，在自然資源有限的情況下，全球人民對於「永續發展」的意識抬高，聯合國於2015年提出了永續發展目標(sustainable development goals, SDGs)，引起世界各國重視人類生存最基本的要素為水與糧食，而自然資源有效利用才能滿足人類需求，因此，國際間陸續對水-能源-糧食關聯(water-energy-food nexus, WEF Nexus)提出相關的研究。 在同一個經濟體內，水-能源-糧食間的關聯性是密不可分的，將其分為三個部門運作，若其中一個部門變動，往往會對另一個部門或兩個部門產生影響，如能源不足，會影響水及糧食安全，從國家經濟規劃勢必對水-能源-糧食等三個部門之間的關聯性加以探討、預測分析，以取得各部門均衡發展並產生最大效益。 本研究是以臺灣的產業關聯表為數據資料，目標是提出一種新的IO(input-output)表預測方法，以現有的歷史IO表作為基礎，基於廣義線性模型(generalized linear model, GLM)的概念，並考慮現有的限制條件與估計誤差的修正方法，透過新的預測方法對未來的投入產出表進行預測，分析產業之間的關聯，觀察不同年份之間的關聯變動，檢測分析產業的發展方向，及評估產業對於自然資源的需求之相關性。 在廣義線性模型中採用指數分佈、高斯(常態)分佈、反高斯分佈、伽瑪分佈以及最佳適配分佈等，進行數據演算分析及比較其適用性，結果發現由指數分佈，伽瑪分佈，以及最佳適配分佈所推估的數據與實際數據偏差值較小，亦即其推估效果較好；而在水、能源和糧食三個部門中，對於糧食部門的推估效果為最佳。 將來，若政府組織架構和交易運作體系能更加周延與健全，交易數據資料平台較完整的環境，數據取得較齊全，才可降低預測風險及順利驗證，則本研究所開發的評估方法就將更具實用性，得以為政府在制定因應對策時提供一些有用的資訊。 " | zh_TW |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2022-11-25T06:33:01Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 U0001-1908202118024700.pdf: 18520346 bytes, checksum: caf6c048e08302b147340f2c5064d7b1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2021 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 目錄 誌謝 I 摘要 II Abstract III 目錄 V 圖目錄 VII 表目錄 IX 第一章 緒論 1 第二章 文獻回顧 6 2.1 水-能源-糧食關聯(Water-Energy-Food Nexus; WEF Nexus)的緣起 6 2.2 水-能源-糧食關聯(WEF Nexus)的研究 8 2.3 水-能源-糧食關聯(WEF Nexus)的風險 15 2.4 風險評估 17 第三章 研究方法 23 3.1 研究區域的背景 23 3.2 WEF關聯的影響因子(水-能源-糧食) 23 3.3 水-能源-糧食的關聯 29 3.4 研究數據來源與整理 29 3.5 演算方法與假設 34 第四章 研究分析與討論 42 4.1 數據資料收集與說明 42 4.2 數據整理與推估 42 4.3 數據演算與結果 42 4.4 推估與分析 65 4.5 風險評估 68 4.6 結果分析與討論 69 第五章 結論 72 參考文獻 75 附錄一 產業關聯部門編號對照表(以民國105年63部門為依據) 84 附錄二 產業關聯部門編號及名稱對照表(以民國105年63部門為依據) 85 附錄三 各年份重新編製(63部門)之產業關聯表 89 附錄四 各年份之輸入資料(64乘64矩陣) 116 | |
| dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
| dc.subject | 永續發展目標 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 廣義線性模型 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 投入產出分析 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 水-能源-糧食關聯 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 風險 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | Risk | en |
| dc.subject | GLM | en |
| dc.subject | Input-Output Analysis | en |
| dc.subject | SDGs | en |
| dc.subject | WEF Nexus | en |
| dc.title | 臺灣水-能源-糧食之產業關聯分析與風險評估 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | Input-Output Analysis of Taiwan’s Water-Energy-Food Risk | en |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 109-2 | |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 許永佳(Hsin-Tsai Liu),邱昱嘉(Chih-Yang Tseng),劉宏仁 | |
| dc.subject.keyword | 永續發展目標,水-能源-糧食關聯,投入產出分析,廣義線性模型,風險, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | SDGs,WEF Nexus,Input-Output Analysis,GLM,Risk, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 133 | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU202102523 | |
| dc.rights.note | 未授權 | |
| dc.date.accepted | 2021-08-23 | |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 工學院 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 土木工程學研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.embargo-lift | 2026-08-20 | - |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 土木工程學系 | |
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