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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 溫在弘(Tzai-Hung Wen) | |
| dc.contributor.author | Chen-Hsuan Tu | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 杜承軒 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2022-11-25T03:03:51Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2026-08-01 | |
| dc.date.copyright | 2021-08-13 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2021 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2021-08-09 | |
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| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/81799 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 目標：完整疫情資訊對防治跨國傳染病相當重要，但衛生機關對於跨國的境外疫情即時掌握能力有其侷限性。本研究目標透過境外移入病例及國際間移動量，探索疫情傳播輸出國及輸入國之間的量化關係，推估疾病來源國的疫情趨勢，以提高對於境外疫情資訊的掌握。方法：本研究以登革熱在東南亞國家傳播至臺灣為案例，透過流行病學數理模式與機率分配之假設，建立來源疫情回推模型 (REDOS)，分析星馬兩國2014年至2017年實際疫情進行驗證。結果：研究結果說明境外移入病例數量與來源國疫情與國家之間移動量呈現正比之關係。透過驗證結果顯示，利用境外移入病例及國際旅客量能有效地捕捉來源國的疫情趨勢，以餘弦相似性及混淆矩陣等指標評估推估疫情與真實疫情，大多都能達到0.8以上的相似性及較高的準確度。並藉此能進一步評估疫情潛在移入國之未來境外移入風險，作為疫情爆發的早期預警。本研究亦開發網頁平台，提供互動式操作及雲端計算，呈現視覺化回推結果及風險評估。結論：本研究從疾病移入國家受到境外病例的角度，理解疫情資料不開放之疫情移出國家的真實疫情趨勢，研究成果強調主動蒐集，對於較困難掌握疫情情報、非WHO會員國的臺灣有重要意義，亦能提供對於境外疫情資料不完整的情況下，在當地進行疫情的早期預警與提前因應。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2022-11-25T03:03:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 U0001-0908202111360100.pdf: 9519981 bytes, checksum: 8f9b6bc24f56003f904ea5492a6a9bac (MD5) Previous issue date: 2021 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 中文摘要 i Abstract ii 目錄 iii 圖目錄 vi 表目錄 ix 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機 1 第二節 研究目的 7 第三節 研究架構 8 第二章 文獻回顧 10 第一節 登革熱全球擴張與移動 10 第二節 登革熱境外移入風險評估 18 第三節 小結 23 第三章 研究方法與資料 24 第一節 研究流程 24 第二節 研究區與資料來源 27 一、研究區選定 27 二、資料來源 36 第三節 研究方法 40 一、來源國與目標國的傳播關係 41 二、REDOS模型 43 三、驗證方法 50 四、境外移入風險預測 59 第四章 研究結果 60 第一節 資料描述 60 一、國際移動資料 60 二、臺灣登革熱境外移入病例 64 三、新加坡與馬來西亞當地登革熱疫情資料 66 第二節 假設性疫情推估 68 第三節 境外移入病例推估真實疫情 72 一、正規化疫情比較 75 二、時間序列的形態之相似性 77 三、疫情爆發時間偵測之正確性 79 第四節 時間窗格敏感性分析 86 一、REDOS回推曲線 86 二、時間序列形態之相似性 89 三、疫情爆發時間偵測之正確性 91 第五節 未來境外移入風險評估 94 一、境外移入風險評估 95 二、未來移入病例時間預測 96 第六節 REDOS網頁平台建置 100 一、臺灣與東南亞疫情 101 二、使用者自訂 106 三、SEIR模擬 109 第五章 討論 113 第一節 REDOS回推疫情的意義 113 第二節 假設性疫情與真實疫情推估比較 115 第三節 真實疫情推估差異 117 第四節 研究限制與建議 123 第六章 結論 126 參考文獻 128 附錄 132 附錄一、機率密度公式推導 132 附錄二、時間窗格敏感性分析之相似性表格 133 | |
| dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
| dc.subject | 風險評估 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 登革熱 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 疫情分析 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 境外移入 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 移動率 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | dengue fever | en |
| dc.subject | imported cases | en |
| dc.subject | epidemic analysis | en |
| dc.subject | disease importations | en |
| dc.subject | risk evaluation | en |
| dc.subject | international mobility | en |
| dc.title | 利用國際旅客量與境外移入病例推估疾病來源國的疫情趨勢：以東南亞登革熱疫情為例 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | Estimating epidemic trends of source countries through international travel and imported cases: a case study of dengue in Southeast Asia | en |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 109-2 | |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
| dc.contributor.advisor-orcid | 溫在弘(0000-0002-9151-8336) | |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 方啟泰(Hsin-Tsai Liu),林楨家(Chih-Yang Tseng) | |
| dc.subject.keyword | 登革熱,疫情分析,境外移入,移動率,風險評估, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | dengue fever,epidemic analysis,disease importations,imported cases,international mobility,risk evaluation, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 134 | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU202102201 | |
| dc.rights.note | 同意授權(全球公開) | |
| dc.date.accepted | 2021-08-10 | |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 理學院 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 地理環境資源學研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.embargo-lift | 2026-08-01 | - |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 地理環境資源學系 | |
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| U0001-0908202111360100.pdf 此日期後於網路公開 2026-08-01 | 9.3 MB | Adobe PDF |
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